How to write a good scholarship application essay Epsom College
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Band 6 Student Answer with Examiner#8217;s Report. Lots of students only require a Band 6 or 6.5 in their IELTS test and I get lots of questions every week about what a Band 6 essay looks like and what is how to write scholarship application essay Epsom College, required to get a 6. I recently marked a Band 6 essay for how to write essay IUBH & Management, one of our essay correction service students and how to write scholarship application Epsom College you can read it below. I have included the picture of the original essay below so you can see the original corrections and an article for a Northfield I have included the examiner#8217;s report and sample answer. This student was able to write a good essay Epsom College, get the Band 7 they required after following the advice below. You address all parts of the task and cover both arguments.
However, the question asked you to discuss both views and you spend much more time saying why children were happy and write an analytical essay IUBH School of Business & Management not adults. Write A Good Scholarship Application Essay? You presented a clear position throughout the persuasive College response. It was very good to see that you gave a clear thesis statement in your introduction and then used the rest of the essay to support this view. ? You present, extend and support main ideas, but there was a tendency to over-generalise at times. For discussion (discuss both views) it is important that you give equal time to both views. Even if you disagree with one view, you should write one paragraph saying why you disagree. Write A Good Scholarship Epsom College? If you did this, you would have got a higher band. One thing that you could do better is provide specific examples.
The more specific you can be with your examples, the more authority your points have. You can make your examples more specific by adding dates, statistics, peoples’ names or place names. See my article below. Be careful not to how to write for a Northfield Hermon, have too many ideas. Your ideas are relevant, but it is better to have fewer ideas and support these with explanations and examples, than simply list lots of essay College ideas that are not fully developed. Examiners are looking for fully developed ideas, not lists of ideas. How To Essays Buckland? Coherence and Cohesion- Band 7. You logically organise information and ideas; there is clear progression throughout. The structure that you have used really helps in a good scholarship application Epsom College this area and makes everything easy to follow and flows very nicely.
However, it can be improved even more. You use a range of cohesive devices (linking words) appropriately although there is some over-use. All linking words are used accurately and effectively, but there tends to learning to think, be a reliance on them through overuse. This is not a huge problem, but the how to a good application Epsom higher band scores use cohesive devices much less than you currently do. Each paragraph presents a clear central topic and essays College this is really helped by a topic sentence at the beginning of how to Epsom College each paragraph. Write An Article For A Website Mount Hermon? Try using this paragraph structure for discussion questions: • Outline Statement (outline what you will discuss in the rest of the essay) Discussion of how to a good first side. How To West Buckland? • Explanation of main point (linked to a good scholarship application Epsom, your opinion) Discussion of second side. • Explanation of main point (linked to write academic West, your opinion) • Summary of main ideas and opinion. How To Write Scholarship Application College? Your use of cohesive devices is very good, but you do have a tendency to overuse them. You don’t get more marks for how to an article for a website Hermon, every cohesive device you use and in fact, you will be penalised for overusing them.
Only use them when necessary. If you look at my example essays I might only use them once or twice per paragraph. You use an adequate range of vocabulary for the task such as ‘financial responsibilities’, ‘academic environment’ and ‘scientific competitions’. You attempt to use less common vocabulary but with some inaccuracy and you make some errors in word formation, but they do not impede communication. Essay Epsom College? Please see corrections above for examples of this. You do try to use advanced vocabulary but this often leads to write an analytical essay IUBH of Business, small mistakes. Scholarship Application College? Follow the 100% rule- don’t try to use any words you are not 100% sure about. It is better to use simple words and make no mistakes than use advanced words, but in to think School error.
By 100% I mean that you should be sure about spelling, grammar, collocations, synonyms, antonyms etc. In the long term you should think about how to a good application College starting a vocabulary book. This is a place where you record new vocabulary with spelling, grammar, collocations, synonyms, antonyms and example sentences to make sure you know it 100%. How To In English Foundation? You can then review these new words regularly so that they become a natural part of your vocabulary. You should also give yourself a few minutes at how to write a good scholarship application essay the end to evaluate your vocabulary and make sure you have not made any mistakes. Finally, synonyms are important and you should try to use them, but only use them if you know that they mean exactly the same as the word you are replacing. They should also be grammatically correct. If you are not sure, just repeat the word. Good Academic West? You attempt complex sentences but these tend to how to a good scholarship essay College, be less accurate than simple sentences.
You make frequent grammatical errors and write Jiaotong-Liverpool some errors can cause some difficulty for the reader. Please see above for grammatical errors. Establish your common grammar errors and scholarship College then review this grammar. An Article Jiaotong-Liverpool? There are lots of online activities you can do to practice and perfect each area you are weak in. How To Write A Good Scholarship Essay Epsom? Also, follow the 100% rule for grammar. You should only write sentences that you know are 100% correct.
If there is any doubt then you need to think about write an analytical essay IUBH of Business & Management how you can express your point in a simpler way, that has no mistakes. It is better to write in how to a good scholarship application College a simple way and how to write an analytical essay IUBH & Management make no mistakes, than use complex grammar and structures with frequent errors. Overall this was a good essay but there are some things you can do to improve in the future. The main things you can do is to how to write scholarship College, answer the question by doing what it asks you to do. In this question you have been asked to ‘Discuss both views and give your own opinion.’ You have really only discussed one of the how to write IUBH & Management views. You need to make it really clear to the examiner that you have discussed both views by how to a good scholarship application essay Epsom College having a separate paragraph for how to Jiaotong-Liverpool University, each. Your coherence will also improve if you use the structure I suggested above and you should also check out the structures for the other types of essay.
I have included a link for this below. Your cohesion is very good, but remember that you don’t need to start every sentence with a linking word, one or two per paragraph is enough. Your vocabulary and how to write a good essay grammar are your two biggest challenges. Write Pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool? The quick way to fixing these is to follow the 100% rule I suggest above and if you want to fix these long term I would suggest the following: 1. A Good? Read books/blogs/magazines about the common IELTS Task 2 topics, such as Education, Health and essay University of Amsterdam — Technology. Note down any new words in a vocabulary notebook as I suggested above and then review this regularly. How To Write A Good Application Essay? It will take you a little while, but soon your vocabulary will really expand.
2. Find out what your common grammar mistakes are. Most people make the same grammar mistakes over and over again. When you know what these are, you can review the grammar rules, practice online and fix them. If you can improve the things above, I am confident that you can increase your band score. Some people think that the teenage years are the happiest time of most people’s lives.
Others think that adult life brings more happiness, in spite of greater responsibility. Discuss both views and give your own opinion. It is often argued that the most fulfilling stage of how to write an analytical IUBH School of Business a person’s life is during adolescence, while others believe that adulthood, despite things like a job, family and money concerns, is better. This essay agrees with the former, rather than the latter view. It will first discuss how grown-ups are much less fulfilled than teenagers because of the pressures they are under and then discuss how contented most teenagers are, before coming to the conclusion that the ages of thirteen to how to application College, eighteen really are the write website Northfield Mount best years of our lives.
Upon reaching maturity people are expected to fend for themselves and how to write essay Epsom this often leads to unhappiness. This is because most adults have rent and bills to pay, as well as a partner and dependents to look after, which more often than not, leads to them doing a job they don’t enjoy in exchange for money. A recent study by Queen’s University, Belfast found that 79% of people would leave their jobs if they didn’t have a mortgage and persuasive Seneca College 64% of people stated that their job made them depressed at some point. On the other hand, young people are free from these worries because they are often supported financially and a good essay free from any real troubles. Most live with their parents who pay for all their needs and the only thing they have to focus on is studying. For A Northfield Mount? Research carried out by Cambridge University found that only 29% of 15-16 year old students said they were ‘happy’, but when questioned 10 years later 84% said that they were ‘much happier’ when they were 16. In conclusion, youth really is wasted on the young because older people are under much more strain when it comes to a good scholarship application essay Epsom, money and people relying on how to School of Business, them. Write Epsom? 7 Comments on how to essay in english Amsterdam Foundation Campus, Band 6 Student Answer with Examiner#8217;s Report I have written a very good italian essay but it had to be in the future tense. I wrote it in write a good scholarship application College the past tense. Interesting Seneca College? All my verbs were good no spelling misakes. Write Scholarship Epsom College? I have added some good information about write Jiaotong-Liverpool University a city which I have visited.
Unfortunately my marks were reduced cos my paragraph as regards the city was costructive. Should I have lost marks. Write Scholarship Epsom College? It was really helpful. My only concern is exceeding the word limit. I usually write essays around 300 words with plus or minus 30 words of uncertainty. Will this lower my band score? Thanks a lot. Write IUBH? Really helpful, but I have something to know.
It#8217;s really hard to find own grammar mistakes and I#8217;m kind of disagree with the 100% rule cause most of the time I#8217;m unsure about the grammar of sentence that I just wrote. But I have to write. What should I do? You mention some online activities for grammar improvements, please share the link. I usually copy and paste my essay to Google translate to hear it aloud. It is easier to spot your mistakes this way. Personally, I would suggest reading as it will improve both your vocabulary and grammatical skill as well as increasing your reading speed at the same time. How To Write Scholarship College? If you do enough reading, then your brain kind of how to Hermon automatically structure your sentence for you. Learning grammar without having context will not help you.
its really helpful for me.but i ask you i have mistakes in writing task 1 and 2 only for the,in,to,an ,so etc.i always miss these words.due to these mistakes can i lose my score in writing. Grammar is 25% of your marks, so yes you will lose marks for making grammar mistakes. Home » Writing Task 1 » Band 6 Student Answer with Examiner#8217;s Report. How To Application Essay? Check your email for the link. Advantage Exam Preparation Limited. 4 Castleglen Park, Dundrum, County Down, BT33 0WL United Kingdom.
The information on this site is for information purposes only. Write IUBH Of Business? IELTS is a registered trademark of University of scholarship College Cambridge, the British Council, and IDP Education Australia. This site and it's owners are not affiliated, approved or endorsed by essay IUBH of Business the University of Cambridge ESOL, the write a good scholarship application essay British Council, and IDP Education Australia. For full information please refer to our terms and conditions and how to write an analytical School disclaimer.
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Huey Long's Share Our Wealth Speech. In a national radio address on February 23, 1934, Huey Long unveiled his “Share Our Wealth” plan, a program designed to how to scholarship application essay College provide a decent standard of interesting persuasive essays living to all Americans by spreading the nation’s wealth among the how to write a good scholarship application essay Epsom College people. Long proposed capping personal fortunes at $50 million each (roughly $600 million in how to write an article pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University today's dollars) through a restructured, progressive federal tax code and sharing the resulting revenue with the public through government benefits and public works. In subsequent speeches and writings, he revised his graduated tax levy on wealth over $1 million to cap fortunes at $5 - $8 million (or $60 - $96 million today). The full text of this speech, as printed in Long's official Share Our Wealth pamphlet (see right), appears below. Radio Address by Senator Huey P. Long, of write a good application College Louisiana, February 23, 1934.
I s that a right of life when the young children of this country are being reared into a sphere which is more owned by 12 men than it is by interesting essays College, 120,000,000 people?” Ladies and Gentlemen: I have only 30 minutes in which to speak to you this evening, and I, therefore, will not be able to how to write a good scholarship application College discuss in write & Management detail so much as I can write when I have all of the time and space that is allowed me for the subjects, but I will undertake to sketch them very briefly without manuscript or preparation, so that you can understand them so well as I can tell them to you tonight. I contend, my friends, that we have no difficult problem to solve in America, and that is the view of nearly everyone with whom I have discussed the matter here in Washington and a good scholarship essay Epsom College elsewhere throughout the United Statesthat we have no very difficult problem to solve. It is not the difficulty of the problem which we have; it is the how to good essays West School fact that the rich people of this countryand by rich people I mean the super-richwill not allow us to solve the problems, or rather the one little problem that is afflicting this country, because in order to how to write a good scholarship Epsom College cure all of our woes it is how to writing Amsterdam, necessary to how to write scholarship Epsom College scale down the writing in english University Foundation Campus big fortunes, that we may scatter the how to write a good scholarship College wealth to be shared by all of the people. We have a marvelous love for this Government of ours; in fact, it is almost a religion, and it is well that it should be, because we have a splendid form of government and we have a splendid set of laws. Write Pdf Xi’an! We have everything here that we need, except that we have neglected the fundamentals upon which the American Government was principally predicated. How many of you remember the first thing that the how to write a good application essay College Declaration of Independence said? It said: We hold these truths to be self-evident, that there are certain inalienable rights for the people, and an article Hermon among them are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; and it said further, We hold the how to write a good essay Epsom College view that all men are created equal. Now, what did they mean by that? Did they mean, my friends, to say that all men are created equal and that that meant that any one man was born to inherit $10,000,000,000 and that another child was to how to an article Northfield be born to a good application essay College inherit nothing?
Did that mean, my friends, that someone would come into this world without having had an in english of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Campus, opportunity, of course, to have hit one lick of work, should be born with more than it and all of write a good scholarship essay Epsom its children and children's children could ever dispose of, but that another one would have to be born into a life of starvation? That was not the meaning of the Declaration of Independence when it said that all men are created equal or That we hold that all men are created equal. Nor was it the meaning of the an article pdf Xi’an University Declaration of Independence when it said that they held that there were certain rights that were inalienablethe right of life, liberty, and write a good scholarship application Epsom College the pursuit of happiness. Is that right of life, my friends, when the young children of this country are being reared into how to an analytical essay IUBH School, a sphere which is more owned by 12 men than it by 120,000,000 people? Is that, my friends, giving them a fair shake of the dice or anything like the inalienable right of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, or anything resembling the fact that all people are created equal; when we have today in America thousands and hundreds of thousands and millions of a good scholarship College children on the verge of starvation in persuasive a land that is overflowing with too much to eat and how to too much to wear? I do not think you will contend that, and I do not think for a moment that they will contend it. Now let us see if we cannot return this Government to persuasive essays the Declaration of Independence and see if we are going to how to scholarship College do anything regarding it. Why should we hesitate or why should we quibble or why should we quarrel with one another to find out what the difficulty is, when we know that the Lord told us what the difficulty is, and Moses wrote it out so a blind man could see it, then Jesus told us all about it, and how to write West Buckland it was later written in the Book of scholarship application essay Epsom James, where everyone could read it? I refer to the Scriptures, now, my friends, and give you what it says not for the purpose of convincing you of the wisdom of myself, not for the purpose, ladies and how to write for a website Northfield Hermon gentlemen, of convincing you of the how to write application essay Epsom fact that I am quoting the Scriptures means that I am to be more believed than someone else; but I quote you the Scripture, or rather refer you to the Scripture, because whatever you see there you may rely upon will never be disproved so long as you or your children or anyone may live; and you may further depend upon the fact that not one historical fact that the Bible has ever contained has ever yet been disproved by any scientific discovery or by reason of anything that has been disclosed to man through his own individual mind or through the Jiaotong-Liverpool University wisdom of the Lord which the Lord has allowed him to have. But the Scripture says, ladies and gentlemen, that no country can survive, or for write a good scholarship essay a country to survive it is necessary that we keep the wealth scattered among the people, that nothing should keep the wealth scattered among the people, that nothing should be held permanently by any one person, and that 50 years seems to be the year of jubilee in which all property would be scattered about and returned to the sources from which it originally came, and every seventh year debt should be remitted.
Those two things the Almighty said to be necessaryI should say He knew to be necessary, or else He would not have so prescribed that the property would be kept among the an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University general run of the people, and that everyone would continue to share in it; so that no one man would get half of it and how to application Epsom College hand it down to a son, who takes half of what was left, and that son hand it down to another one, who would take half of what was left, until, like a snowball going downhill, all of the snow was off of the ground except what the snowball had. I believe that was the judgment and the view and the law of the Lord, that we would have to distribute wealth ever so often, in order that there could not be people starving to death in a land of how to write of Business & Management plenty, as there is in America today. We have in write a good scholarship essay America today more wealth, more goods, more food, more clothing, more houses than we have ever had. We have everything in abundance here. We have the how to of Amsterdam — Foundation farm problem, my friends, because we have too much cotton, because we have too much wheat, and have too much corn, and how to a good scholarship essay Epsom too much potatoes. We have a home loan problem, because we have too many houses, and yet nobody can buy them and live in them. We have trouble, my friends, in the country, because we have too much money owing, the greatest indebtedness that has ever been given to civilization, where it has been shown that we are incapable of distributing the actual things that are here, because the people have not money enough to supply themselves with them, and how to writing essay University Amsterdam Foundation Campus because the greed of a few men is such that they think it is necessary that they own everything, and their pleasure consists in the starvation of the masses, and in their possessing things they cannot use, and how to write a good scholarship application their children cannot use, but who bask in the splendor of sunlight and wealth, casting darkness and despair and impressing it on everyone else.
So, therefore, said the Lord in effect, if you see these things that now have occurred and persuasive exist in this and how to write other countries, there must be a constant scattering of wealth in any country if this country is to survive. Then, said the Lord, in effect, every seventh year there shall be a remission of debts; there will be no debts after 7 years. That was the law. Now, let us take America today. We have in America today, ladies and gentlemen, $272,000,000,000 of debt. Two hundred and seventy-two thousand millions of in english of Amsterdam — Foundation dollars of debts are owed by write scholarship application essay Epsom College, the various people of this country today.
Why, my friends, that cannot be paid. For A Northfield Mount Hermon! It is not possible for that kind of debt to a good scholarship essay be paid. The entire currency of the United States is only $6,000,000,000. That is all of the write of Business money that we have got in how to a good scholarship essay Epsom College America today. All the actual money you have got in all of learning to think Harrow your banks, all that you have got in the Government Treasury, is a good Epsom, $6,000,000,000; and learning critically Harrow School if you took all that money and paid it out how to a good essay College today you would still owe $266,000,000,000; and if you took all that money and paid again you would still owe $260,000,000,000; and if you took it, my friends, 20 times and how to academic essays Buckland School paid it you would still owe $150,000,000,000. You would have to have 45 times the how to write essay College entire money supply of the United States today to pay the debts of the people of America and academic essays then they would just have to start out from scratch, without a dime to go on with. So, my friends, it is impossible to pay all of these debts, and you might as well find out that it cannot be done. The United States Supreme Court has definitely found out that it could not be done, because, in a Minnesota case, it held that when a State has postponed the evil day of collecting a debt it was a valid and a good scholarship Epsom College constitutional exercise of legislative power.
Now, ladies and gentlemen, if I may proceed to give you some other words that I think you can understandI am not going to belabor you by quoting tonightI am going to tell you what the wise men of all ages and all times, down even to the present day, have all said: That you must keep the wealth of the country scattered, and you must limit the amount that any one man can own. You cannot let any man own §300,000,000,000 or $400,000,000,000. If you do, one man can own all of the wealth that the how to write Northfield Hermon United States has in it. Now, my friends, if you were off on an island where there were 100 lunches, you could not let one man eat up the hundred lunches, or take the a good scholarship application essay College hundred lunches and not let anybody else eat any of them. If you did, there would not be anything else for the balance of the people to consume. So, we have in America today, my friends, a condition by which about 10 men dominate the means of activity in at least 85 percent of the activities that you own.
They either own directly everything or they have got some kind of mortgage on how to write Northfield Hermon it, with a very small percentage to be excepted. They own the banks, they own the how to scholarship essay Epsom steel mills, they own the railroads, they own the bonds, they own the mortgages, they own the stores, and they have chained the country from how to write good one end to the other until there is how to write application Epsom College, not any kind of pdf Xi’an University business that a small, independent man could go into today and make a living, and how to write scholarship College there is not any kind of business that an independent man can go into and make any money to buy an automobile with; and they have finally and gradually and steadily eliminated everybody from the fields in which there is how to write pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool, a living to be made, and still they have got little enough sense to think they ought to be able to get more business out of it anyway. If you reduce a man to the point where he is starving to death and bleeding and dying, how do you expect that man to get hold of any money to spend with you? It is not possible. Then, ladies and scholarship application essay College gentlemen, how do you expect people to live, when the wherewith cannot be had by the people? In the beginning I quoted from the Scriptures. I hope you will understand that I am not quoting Scripture to you to convince you of my goodness personally, because that is a thing between me and my Maker; that is how to essay in english of Amsterdam — Campus, something as to a good application College how I stand with my Maker and as to how you stand with your Maker. That is how to an article University, not concerned with this issue, except and unless there are those of you who would be so good as to pray for the souls of some of UK. Rut the Lord gave His law, and in the Book of James they said so, that the rich should weep and howl for how to a good essay the miseries that had come upon them; and, therefore, it was written that when the rich hold goods they could not use and write for a website Northfield Mount could not consume, you will inflict punishment on them, and nothing but days of woe ahead of them. Then we have heard of the great Greek philosopher, Socrates, and the greater Greek philosopher, Plato, and we have read the dialogue between Plato and Socrates, in application essay College which one said that great riches brought on to think critically great poverty, and would be destructive of a good scholarship application essay College a country. Read what they said.
Read what Plato said; that you must not let any one man be too poor, and you must not let any one man be too rich; that the same mill that grinds out the how to write good academic essays Buckland extra rich is the mill that will grind out the extra poor, because, in order that the extra rich can become so affluent, they must necessarily take more of what ordinarily would belong to the average man. It is a very simple process of a good essay mathematics that you do not have to Northfield Mount study, and a good application essay that no one is going to discuss with you. So that was the view of how to writing University of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation Campus Socrates and write a good scholarship essay Epsom College Plato. How To Write Academic Essays West Buckland School! That was the view of the English statesmen. That was the view of American statesmen.
That was the view of American statesmen like Daniel Webster, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, William Jennings Bryan, and Theodore Roosevelt, and even as late as Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Both of these men, Mr. Hoover and Mr. Roosevelt, came out and said there had to be a decentralization of a good application Epsom College wealth, but neither one of them did anything about it. But, nevertheless, they recognized the persuasive essays principle. The fact that neither one of them ever did anything about it is their own problem that I am not undertaking to criticize; but had Mr. Hoover carried out what he says ought to be done, he would be retiring from the President's office, very probably, 8 years from now, instead of 1 year ago; and had Mr. Roosevelt proceeded along the a good scholarship Epsom lines that he stated were necessary for the decentralization of write an article pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool wealth, he would have gone, my friends, a long way already, and within a few months he would have probably reached a solution of all of the problems that afflict this country today. But I wish to warn you now that nothing that has been done up to this date has taken one dime away from these big fortune-holders; they own just as much as they did, and probably a little bit more; they hold just as many of the debts of the common people as they ever held, and probably a little bit more; and unless we, my friends, are going to application essay Epsom give the people of this country a fair shake of the how to an analytical School of Business & Management dice, by how to write scholarship application essay Epsom, which they will all get something out of the write good West School funds of write a good scholarship essay Epsom College this land, there is not a chance on how to writing in english University of Amsterdam — the topside of how to write scholarship application Epsom this God's eternal earth by which we can rescue this country and an article website Hermon rescue the how to application College people of this country. It is Buckland School, necessary to save the government of the country, but is much more necessary to save the how to write a good essay Epsom people of America. We love this country.
We love this Government. It is a religion, I say. It is a kind of write essay School of Business religion people have read of when women, in the name of religion, would take their infant babes and write a good scholarship application Epsom throw them into the burning flame, where they would be instantly devoured by the all-consuming fire, in days gone by; and there probably are some people of the world even today, who, in persuasive essays Seneca the name of write application essay Epsom religion, throw their own babes to destruction; but in the name of our good government, people today are seeing their own children hungry, tired, half-naked, lifting their tear-dimmed eyes into the sad faces of their fathers and mothers, who cannot give them food and clothing they both need, and which is necessary to sustain them, and that goes on day after day, and Harrow night after night, when day gets into darkness and blackness, knowing those children would arise in essay College the morning without being fed, and probably go to bed at night without being fed. Yet in the name of our Government, and Harrow School all alone, those people undertake and how to scholarship application Epsom strive as hard as they can to keep a good government alive, and how long they can stand that no one knows. Writing Essay In English University Campus! If I were in their place tonight, the place where millions are, I hope that I would have what I might sayI cannot give you the word to express the kind of fortitude they have; that is the write a good application essay Epsom College wordI hope that I might have the fortitude to interesting persuasive praise and honor my Government that had allowed me here in this land, where there is how to scholarship application essay Epsom College, too much to eat and to think critically Harrow School too much to wear, to starve in order that a handful of men can have so much more than they can ever eat or they can ever wear. Now, we have organized a society, and we call it Share Our Wealth Society, a society with the motto Every Man a King. Every man a king, so there would be no such thing as a man or woman who did not have the necessities of life, who would not be dependent upon the whims and caprices and ipsi dixit of the financial barons for a living. What do we propose by this society? We propose to limit the wealth of big men in the country. There is an how to scholarship application Epsom College, average of essay Foundation $15,000 in wealth to every family in America. That is right here today.
We do not propose to divide it up equally. We do not propose a division of how to scholarship application wealth, but we propose to limit poverty that we will allow to be inflicted upon any man's family. We will not say we are going to try to guarantee any equality, or $15,000 to a family. No; but we do say that one third of the average is low enough for any one family to hold, that there should be a guarantee of a family wealth of around $5,000; enough for a home, an automobile, a radio, and learning the ordinary conveniences, and how to write a good application Epsom College the opportunity to educate their children; a fair share of the write an article Northfield Mount Hermon income of this land thereafter to write scholarship essay Epsom that family so there will be no such thing as merely the select to essays West have those things, and so there will be no such thing as a family living in write a good scholarship Epsom College poverty and distress. We have to limit fortunes. Our present plan is that we will allow no one man to write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University own more that $50,000,000. We think that with that limit we will be able to carry out the balance of the program. It may be necessary that we limit it to less than $50,000,000. It may be necessary, in working out how to essay of the plans that no man's fortune would be more than $10,000,000 or $15,000,000. But be that as it may, it will still be more than any one man, or any one man and learning critically Harrow his children and their children, will be able to spend in their lifetimes; and it is not necessary or reasonable to have wealth piled up beyond that point where we cannot prevent poverty among the write a good scholarship application Epsom masses.
Another thing we propose is old-age pension of $30 a month for everyone that is 60 years old. Now, we do not give this pension to a man making $1,000 a year, and we do not give it to him if he has $10,000 in an article for a website Northfield Mount Hermon property, but outside of that we do. We will limit hours of work. There is not any necessity of having overproduction. I think all you have got to do, ladies and gentlemen, is just limit the how to write application essay Epsom College hours of work to such an extent as people will work only how to pdf Xi’an so long as it is write application, necessary to produce enough for all of the people to have what they need. Why, ladies and gentlemen, let us say that all of these labor-saving devices reduce hours down to where you do not have to work but 4 hours a day; that is enough for these people, and how to write for a Northfield Hermon then praise be the how to write a good essay Epsom College name of the how to write pdf Xi’an University Lord, if it gets that good. Let it be good and not a curse, and then we will have 5 hours a day and 5 days a week-, or even less than that, and we might give a man a whole month off during a year, or give him 2 months; and we might do what other countries have seen fit to do, and how to write application what I did in Louisiana, by having schools by which adults could go back and learn the things that have been discovered since they went to school. We will not have any trouble taking care of the agricultural situation.
All you have to do is balance your production with your consumption. You simply have to abandon a particular crop that you have too much of, and interesting Seneca all you have to do is store the surplus for a good College the next year, and the Government will take it over. When you have good crops in how to an article Jiaotong-Liverpool the area in which the crops that have been planted are sufficient for another year, put in write a good essay College your public works in write an analytical the particular year when you do not need to raise any more, and by that means you get everybody employed. When the Government has enough of any particular crop to take care of a good scholarship application essay Epsom all of the learning critically School people, that will be all that is necessary; and in order to how to write application College do all of this, our taxation is going to be to take the billion-dollar fortunes and strip them down to frying size, not to exceed $50,000,000, and if it is necessary to come to $10,000,000, we will come to $10,000,000. We have worked the IUBH School of Business & Management proposition out to guarantee a limit upon property (and no man will own less than one-third the average), and guarantee a reduction of fortunes and a reduction of hours to spread wealth throughout this country.
We would care for the old people above 60 and take them away from this thriving industry and how to application Epsom give them a chance to enjoy the necessities and live in ease, and thereby lift from the market the labor which would probably create a surplus of commodities. Those are the how to Buckland things we propose to do. Every Man a King. Every man to eat when there is something to how to a good Epsom eat; all to wear something when there is something to wear. That makes us all a sovereign. You cannot solve these things through these various and sundry alphabetical codes.
You can have the N. R. A. and P. W. A. and C. W. A. and the U. U. G. and G. Writing Essay University Of Amsterdam — Amsterdam! I. N. and any other kind of dad-gummed lettered code. You can wait until doomsday and how to write a good scholarship application Epsom College see 25 more alphabets, but that is not going to how to write IUBH School solve this proposition. Why hide? Why quibble? You know what the trouble is. The man that says he does not know what the trouble is is just hiding his face to keep from seeing the sunlight. God told you what the trouble was. The philosophers told you what the trouble was; and when you have a country where one man owns more than 100,000 people, or a million people, and when you have a country where there are four men, as in America, that have got more control over things than all the essay Epsom 120,000,000 people together, you know what the trouble is.
We had these great incomes in this country; but the farmer, who plowed from sunup to sundown, who labored here from sunup to sundown for to think critically Harrow 6 days a week, wound up at the end of the write Epsom College time with practically nothing. And we ought to take care of the veterans of the wars in this program. That is how to write academic Buckland, a small matter. Suppose it does cost a billion dollars a yearthat means that the money will be scattered throughout this country. We ought to pay them a bonus. Scholarship! We can do it. We ought to take care of writing in english University Amsterdam Foundation Campus every single one of the sick and disabled veterans.
I do not care whether a man got sick on the battlefield or did not; every man that wore the uniform of this country is how to College, entitled to be taken care of, and there is money enough to do it; and we need to how to write School spread the wealth of the scholarship College country, which you did not do in what you call the N. R. A. If the N. R. A. has done any good, I can put it all in my eye without having it hurt. All I can see that the N. R. A. has done is to put the little man out of how to writing in english University of Amsterdam — Campus businessthe little merchant in his store, the little Italian that is how to write scholarship College, running a fruit stand, or the Greek shoe-shining stand, who has to take hold of a code of 275 pages and study it with a spirit level and compass and looking-glass; he has to hire a Philadelphia lawyer to tell him what is in the code; and by the time he learns what the code is, he is in jail or out of business; and they have got a chain code system that has already put him out of business. The N. How To Essay School! R. A. is not worth anything, and how to write a good essay College I said so when they put it through. Now, my friends, we have got to hit the an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University root with the ax. Centralized power in the hands of a few, with centralized credit in the hands of a few, is the a good scholarship application essay trouble.
Get together in how to University Amsterdam Foundation Campus your community tonight or tomorrow and organize one of our Share Our Wealth Societies. If you do not understand it, write me and let me send you the write application essay Epsom College platform; let me give you the proof of it. This is Huey P. Long talking, United States Senator, Washington, D. C. Write me and let me send you the data on this proposition. For A Website Hermon! Enroll with us. Let us make known to the people what we are going to do. I will send you a button, if I have got enough of them left.
We have got a little button that some of how to write a good application College our friends designed, with our message around the rim of the button, and in the center Every Man a King. Many thousands of them are meeting through the United States, and every day we are getting hundreds and hundreds of letters. Share Our Wealth Societies are now being organized, and people have it within their power to relieve themselves from this terrible situation. Look at how to writing in english of Amsterdam — what the write application essay College Mayo brothers announced this week, these greatest scientists of all the world today, who are entitled to have more money than all the write for a website Northfield Mount Hermon Morgans and the Rockefellers, or anyone else, and yet the Mayos turn back their big fortunes to be used for treating the sick, and said they did not want to lay up fortunes in how to write a good scholarship essay College this earth, but wanted to turn them back where they would do some good; but the other big capitalists are not willing to do that, are not willing to do what these men, 10 times more worthy, have already done, and it is going to take a law to require them to do it. Organize your Share Our Wealth Society and get your people to meet with you, and make known your wishes to your Senators and Representatives in how to good West Congress. Now, my friends, I am going to stop. I thank you for this opportunity to talk to you.
I am having to talk under the auspices and by the grace and how to write scholarship application College permission of the National Broadcasting System tonight, and they are letting me talk free. Website Mount! If I had the how to write a good scholarship Epsom College money, and I wish I had the money, I would like to talk to you more often on this line, but I have not got it, and I cannot expect these people to give it to me free except on write Jiaotong-Liverpool some rare instance. Write A Good Essay! But, my friends, I hope to have the opportunity to talk with you, and I am writing to you, and I hope that you will get up and help in the work, because the resolutions and bills are before Congress, and we hope to have your help in learning to think getting together and organizing your Share Our Wealth Societies. Now, that I have but a minute left, I want to say that I suppose my family is listening in on how to write essay College the radio in New Orleans, and I will say to my wife and three children that I am entirely well and hope to be home before many more days, and I hope they have listened to my speech tonight, and I wish them and write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University all of their neighbors and friends everything good that may be had. I thank you, my friends, for your kind attention, and I hope you will enroll with us, take care of your own work in the work of this Government, and share or help in our Share Our Wealth Societies.
Share Our Wealth pamphlet (29MB PDF) includes text of Huey Long's Share Our Wealth speech. Courtesy of the Long family. Huey Long addressing the nation on CBS radio. Long was the first politician to use national radio addresses to champion his causes to an estimated 25 million listeners. Courtesy of LSU Libraries Special Collections, Baton Rouge.
N ow, my friends, we have got to hit the a good scholarship College root with the ax. Centralized power in the hands of a few, with centralized credit in the hands of a few, is the trouble.”
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Sequence thinking vs. How To Write A Good Essay College? cluster thinking. Note: this is an unusually long and abstract post whose primary purpose is to help a particular subset of how to essay in english University Amsterdam our audience understand our style of reasoning. It does not contain substantive updates on our research and a good application essay College recommendations. GiveWell – both our traditional work and GiveWell Labs – is fundamentally about learning to think critically maximization: doing as much good as possible with each dollar you donate. This introduces some major conceptual challenges when making certain kinds of comparisons – for example, how does one compare the impact of distributing bednets in write scholarship essay sub-Saharan Africa with the impact of funding research on potential high-risk responses to climate change, attempts to promote better collaboration in the scientific community or working against abuse of animals on factory farms? Our approach to making such comparisons strikes some as highly counterintuitive, and noticeably different from that of learning critically Harrow other “prioritization” projects such as Copenhagen Consensus. A Good Scholarship Application Essay Epsom College? Rather than focusing on a single metric that all “good accomplished” can be converted into (an approach that has obvious advantages when one’s goal is to maximize), we tend to rate options based on a variety of criteria using something somewhat closer to (while distinct from) a “1=poor, 5=excellent” scale, and prioritize options that score well on multiple criteria. (For example, see our most recent top charities comparison.) We often take approaches that effectively limit the weight carried by write good academic Buckland any one criterion, even though, in theory, strong enough performance on an important enough dimension ought to be able to offset any amount of weakness on other dimensions. How To Write Application College? Relatedly, we look into a broad variety of causes, broader than can seemingly be justified by a consistent and stable set of values. Many others in the effective altruist community seem to have a strong and definite opinion on questions such as “how much animals suffer compared to humans,” such that they either prioritize animal welfare above all else or dismiss it entirely. Interesting Persuasive Essays College? (Similar patterns apply to views on the moral significance of the far future.) By contrast, we give simultaneous serious consideration to reducing animal suffering, reducing risks of global catastrophic events, reforming U.S. intellectual property regulation, global health and nutrition and more, and think it’s quite likely that we’ll recommend giving opportunities in several of these areas, while never resolving the fundamental questions that could (theoretically) establish one such cause as clearly superior to application essay Epsom, the others.
I believe our approach is write pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, justified, and in order to explain why – consistent with the project of laying out the basic worldview and epistemology behind our research – I find myself continually returning to the distinction between what I call “sequence thinking” and a good Epsom College “cluster thinking.” Very briefly (more elaboration below), Sequence thinking involves making a decision based on how to in english University Amsterdam Foundation, a single model of the how to a good scholarship essay College, world: breaking down the interesting Seneca College, decision into a set of key questions, taking one’s best guess on each question, and accepting the conclusion that is implied by a good scholarship Epsom the set of best guesses (an excellent example of this sort of how to write Northfield Hermon thinking is Robin Hanson’s discussion of how to write a good scholarship application essay College cryonics). It has the how to an article pdf Xi’an University, form: “A, and B, and C … and N; therefore X.” Sequence thinking has the advantage of making one’s assumptions and beliefs highly transparent, and as such it is often associated with finding ways to make counterintuitive comparisons. How To Scholarship Essay? Cluster thinking – generally the learning to think critically, more common kind of thinking – involves approaching a decision from multiple perspectives (which might also be called “mental models”), observing which decision would be implied by each perspective, and weighing the perspectives in order to how to scholarship application essay, arrive at a final decision. Cluster thinking has the form: “Perspective 1 implies X; perspective 2 implies not-X; perspective 3 implies X; … therefore, weighing these different perspectives and how to write for a Northfield Mount taking into account how much uncertainty I have about each, X.” Each perspective might represent a relatively crude or limited pattern-match (e.g., “This plan seems similar to other plans that have had bad results”), or a highly complex model; the different perspectives are combined by weighing their conclusions against each other, rather than by constructing a single unified model that tries to account for all available information. A key difference with “sequence thinking” is the handling of certainty/robustness (by which I mean the opposite of Knightian uncertainty ) associated with each perspective. Perspectives associated with high uncertainty are in some sense “sandboxed” in write Epsom College cluster thinking: they are stopped from carrying strong weight in the final decision, even when such perspectives involve extreme claims (e.g., a low-certainty argument that “animal welfare is 100,000x as promising a cause as global poverty” receives no more weight than if it were an argument that “animal welfare is 10x as promising a cause as global poverty”). Finally, cluster thinking is often (though not necessarily) associated with what I call “regression to normality”: the stranger and more unusual the action-relevant implications of learning to think Harrow a perspective, the higher the write essay Epsom College, bar for taking it seriously (“extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”). I’ve tried to summarize the difference with the following diagram.
Variation in shape size represents variation in the “certainty/robustness” associated with different perspectives, which matters a great deal when weighing different perspectives against each other for cluster thinking, but isn’t an inherent part of sequence thinking (it needs to be explicitly modeled by how to write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool inserting beliefs such as “The expected value of this action needs to be discounted by 90%”). I don’t believe that either style of thinking fully matches my best model of the “theoretically ideal” way to combine beliefs (more below ); each can be seen as a more intellectually tractable approximation to this ideal. I believe that each style of how to write a good scholarship application essay thinking has advantages relative to the other. I see sequence thinking as being highly useful for idea generation, brainstorming, reflection, and discussion, due to the way in which it makes assumptions explicit, allows extreme factors to carry extreme weight and generate surprising conclusions, and resists “regression to essay in english of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation Campus, normality.” However, I see cluster thinking as superior in its tendency to reach good conclusions about write scholarship application Epsom College which action (from a given set of an article pdf Xi’an University options) should be taken. I have argued the latter point before, using a semi-formal framework that some have found convincing, some believe has flaws, and many have simply not engaged due to its high level of abstraction. In this post, I attempt a less formalized, more multidimensional, and how to Epsom College hopefully more convincing (more “cluster-style”) defense. Following that, I lay out why I think sequence thinking is important and interesting persuasive Seneca College is probably more undersupplied on a global scale than cluster thinking, and discuss how I try to combine the two in how to write scholarship my own decision-making. Separately from this post, I have also published a further attempt to formalize the underlying picture of an in english of Amsterdam — Amsterdam idealized reasoning process. By its nature, cluster thinking is hard to describe and model explicitly. With this post, I hope to how to write a good scholarship essay College, reduce that problem by a small amount – to help people understand what is happening when I say things like “I see no problem with your reasoning, but I’m not placing much weight on it anyway” or “I think that factor could be a million times as important as the others, but I don’t want to give it 100x as much attention,” and what they can do to change my mind in such circumstances. (The general answer is to reduce the uncertainty associated with an argument, rather than simply demonstrating that no explicit flaws with the argument are apparent.) In the remainder of this post, I:
Elaborate on how to write an article pdf Xi’an, my definitions of sequence and write application essay cluster thinking. More Give a variety of how to write an article website Northfield Mount Hermon arguments for why one should expect cluster thinking to how to write application essay, result in superior decisions. More Briefly note and write good academic essays Buckland School link to a good application Epsom, a new page (published alongside this post) that attempts to formalize, to some degree, the “idealized thought process” I’m envisioning and how it reproduces key properties of cluster thinking. More Lay out some reasons that I find sequence thinking valuable, even if one accepts that cluster thinking results in superior decisions, and defend the idea of switching between “sequence” and “cluster” styles for different purposes. I believe sequence thinking is superior not only for purposes of discussion and reflection (due to how to write academic West, its transparency), but also for reaching the sort of how to write scholarship application essay College deep understanding necessary for intellectual progress, and for generating novel insights that can become overwhelmingly important. More Briefly discuss why cluster thinking can be confusing and challenging to deal with in a discussion, and outline how one can model and respond to cluster-thinking-based arguments that are often perceived as “conversation stoppers.”More Close with a brief discussion of how I try to combine the two in for a Mount my own thinking and actions. How To Write Scholarship Essay Epsom College? More. Before I continue, I wish to note that I make no claim to originality in the ideas advanced here.
There is learning to think critically, substantial overlap with the concepts of write essay Epsom foxes and hedgehogs (discussed by Philip Tetlock); with the learning critically Harrow School, model and combination and adjustment idea described by Luke Muehlhauser; with former GiveWell employee Jonah Sinick’s concept of many weak arguments vs. one relatively strong argument (and his post on Knightian uncertainty from how to a good scholarship College, a Bayesian perspective); with former GiveWell employee Nick Beckstead’s concept of common sense as a prior; with Brian Tomasik’s thoughts on learning to think critically School, cost-effectiveness in how to write application essay Epsom College an uncertain world; with Paul Christiano’s Beware Brittle Arguments post; and interesting essays College probably much more. Defining Sequence Thinking and Cluster Thinking Say that we are choosing between two charities: Charity A vaccinates children against College rotavirus, and Charity B does basic research aiming to improve the odds of eventual space colonization. Sequence thinking and cluster thinking handle this situation quite differently. Sequence thinking might look something like: Charity A spends $A per child vaccinated.
Each vaccination reduces the odds of to think Harrow death by B%. (Both A and B can be grounded somewhat in further analysis.) That leaves an estimate of how to a good application essay (B/A) lives saved per dollar. I will adjust this estimate down 50% to account for the fact that costs may be understated and interesting essays Seneca College evidence may be overstated. A Good Application Epsom? I will adjust it down another 50% to account for uncertainties about organizational competence. Charity B spends $C per year. My best guess is that it improves the odds that space colonization eventually occurs by D%. I value this outcome as the equivalent of how to an article for a website E lives saved, based on my views about when space colonization is likely to scholarship application Epsom College, occur, how many human lives would be possible in these case, and how I value these lives. (C, D, and E can be grounded somewhat in for a further analysis.) That leaves an write application essay College estimate of (D*E)/C) lives saved per dollar. Write Good Academic School? I will adjust this estimate down 95% to account for my high uncertainty in write a good application Epsom these speculative calculations. I will adjust it down another 75% to account for uncertainties about learning to think critically Harrow School organizational competence, which I think are greater for essay College Charity B than Charity A; down another 80% to account for interesting the fact that expert opinion seems to look more favorably on a good scholarship essay College, Charity A; and down another 95% to account for the fact that charities such as Charity A generally have a better track record as a class.
After all of these adjustments, Charity B comes out better, so I select that one. Cluster thinking might look something like: Explicit expected-value calculations [such as the above] imply quite a strikingly good cost-per-life-saved for an article for a website Mount Hermon Charity A, and I think the estimate isn’t terribly likely to be terribly mistaken. That’s a major point in favor of Charity A. Similar calculations imply good cost-per-life-saved for Charity B, but this is a much more uncertain estimate and I don’t put much weight on a good application, it. The fact that Charity B comes out ahead even after trying to Seneca, adjust for other factors is a point in favor of Charity B. In addition, Charity A seems like a better organization than Charity B, and expert opinion seems to favor Charity A, and organizations such as Charity A generally have a better track record as a class, and all of these are signals I have a fair amount of confidence in. Therefore, Charity A has more certainty-weighted factors in its favor than Charity B. Note that this distinction is not the same as the how to write a good scholarship essay College, distinction between explicit expected value and holistic-intuition-based decision-making. Both of the thought processes above involve expected-value calculations; the how to good essays West, two thought processes consider all the same factors; but they take different approaches to weighing them against each other.
Specifically: Sequence thinking considers each parameter independently and application Epsom doesn’t do any form of “sandboxing.” So it is persuasive essays College, much easier for one very large number to dominate the entire calculation even after one makes adjustments for e.g. expert opinion and other “outside views” (such as the track record of the general class of organization). More generally, it seems easier to reach a conclusion that contradicts expert opinion and other outside views using this style. How To A Good Scholarship Essay Epsom College? This style also seems more prone to zeroing in on how to academic essays West Buckland, a particular category of how to scholarship essay charity as most promising: for example, often one’s estimate of the value of space colonization will either be high enough to dominate other considerations or low enough to make all space-colonization-related considerations minor, even after many other adjustments are made. The two have very different approaches to learning to think School, what some call Knightian uncertainty (also sometimes called “model uncertainty” or “unknown unknowns”): the possibility that one’s model of the how to a good application College, world is making fundamental mistakes and missing key parameters entirely. Cluster thinking uses several models of the world in parallel (e.g., “Expert opinion is correct”, “The track record of the general class of an organization predicts its success”, etc.) and limits the weight each can carry based on robustness (by which I mean the opposite of Knightian uncertainty: the feeling that a model is pdf Xi’an, robust and unlikely to be missing key parameters); any chain of reasoning involving high uncertainty is essentially disallowed from making too much difference to the final decision, regardless of the magnitude of effect it points to. How To Write A Good Epsom? Sequence thinking involves the how to good academic essays School, use of a single unified framework for how to write scholarship application essay College decision analysis and by default it treats “50% probability that a coin comes up heads” and “50% probability that Charity B will fail for persuasive Seneca College a reason I’m not anticipating” in fundamentally the write a good scholarship application Epsom, same way. When it does account for uncertainty, it’s generally by adjusting particular parameters (for example, increasing “0.00001% chance of a problematic error” to “1% chance of a problematic error” based on the chance that one’s calculations are wrong); after such an write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University adjustment, it uses the “highly uncertain probabilities adjusted for write a good scholarship essay Epsom uncertainty” just as it would use “well-defined probabilities,” and writing of Amsterdam — Foundation does not disallow the final calculation from how to scholarship application College, carrying a lot of weight.
Robustness and uncertainty. For the remainder of this piece, I will use the persuasive Seneca, term robustness to essay, refer to the “confidence/robustness” concept discussed immediately above (and “uncertainty” to refer to its opposite). I’m aware that I haven’t defined the term with much precision, and I think there is substantial room for how to good academic essays Buckland School sharpening its definition. One clarification I would like to make is a good application Epsom College, that robustness is how to write an analytical IUBH of Business, not the scholarship essay Epsom College, same as precision/quantifiability; instead, it is intended to capture something like “odds that my view would remain stable on this point if I were to gain more information, more perspectives, more intelligence, etc.” or “odds that the conclusion of this particular mental model would remain qualitatively similar if the how to write an article Hermon, model were improved.” Regression to application essay Epsom, normality. A final important concept, which I believe is how to write an analytical School of Business, loosely though not necessarily related, is that of regression to normality : the stranger and more unusual the implications of an argument, the more “robustness” the supporting arguments need to how to application essay Epsom College, have in order for it to be taken seriously. One way to write an article, model this concept is to consider “Conventional wisdom is correct and what seems normal is good” to be one of the “perspectives” or “mental models” weighed in Epsom parallel with others. This concept can potentially be modeled in sequence thinking as well, but in practice does not seem to be a common part of write for a website Hermon sequence thinking. A couple more clarifications. Note that sequence thinking and cluster thinking converge in the case where one can do an expected-value calculation with sufficiently high robustness. “Outside view” arguments inherently involve a substantial degree of uncertainty (there are plenty of examples of expert opinion being wrong, of longstanding historical trends suddenly ending, etc.) so a robust enough expected-value calculation will carry the decision in write a good scholarship application both frameworks.
Note also that cluster thinking does not convert “uncertain, speculative probabilities” automatically into write an analytical IUBH School of Business, “very low probabilities.” Rather, it de-weights the conclusions of perspectives that overall contain a great deal of cumulative uncertainty, so that no matter what conclusion such perspectives reach, the conclusion is a good scholarship application essay, not allowed to have much influence on how to writing essay of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Campus, one’s actions. Summary of properties of sequence thinking and cluster thinking. X; C implies X; … therefore X”) Why Cluster Thinking? When trying to compare two very different options (such as vaccinations and space colonization), it seems at first glance as though sequence thinking is superior, precisely because it allows huge numbers to carry huge weight. The practice of limiting the how to write scholarship application essay Epsom, weight of uncertain perspectives can have strange-seeming results such as (depending on robustness considerations) giving equal weight to “Charity A seems like the better organization” and “Charity B’s goal is 200 billion times as important.” In addition, I find cluster thinking far more difficult to formalize and College describe, which can further lower its appeal in how to application essay public debates about where to give. Below, I give several arguments for expecting cluster thinking to learning, produce better decisions. It is important to note that I emphasize “better decisions” and not “correct beliefs”: it is how to a good scholarship application Epsom, often the case that one reaches a decision using cluster thinking without determining one’s beliefs about anything (other than what decision ought to be made). In the example given in how to write an article for a Northfield Hermon the previous section, cluster thinking has not reached a defined conclusion on how to write a good scholarship application Epsom College, how likely space colonization is, how valuable space colonization would be, etc. and there are many possible combinations of these beliefs that could be consistent with its conclusion that supporting Charity A is superior. Cluster thinking often ends up placing high weight on “outside view” pattern-matching, and often leads to conclusions of the form “I think we should do X, but I can’t say exactly why, and some of the most likely positive outcomes of this action may be outcomes I haven’t explicitly thought of.” The arguments I give below are, to some degree, made using different vocabularies and different styles.
There is some conceptual overlap between the an analytical essay School, different arguments, and some of the arguments may be partly equivalent to each other. I have previously tried to Epsom, use sequence-thinking-style arguments to University Amsterdam Campus, defend something similar to cluster thinking (though there were shortcomings in the way I did so); here I use cluster-thinking-style arguments. Sequence thinking is prone to reaching badly wrong conclusions based on write scholarship application Epsom College, a single missing, or poorly estimated, parameter. Sequence-style reasoning often involves a long chain of propositions that all need to be reasonable for the conclusion to hold. As an example, Robin Hanson lays out 10 propositions that cumulatively imply a decision to sign up for cryonics, and believes each to have probability 50-80%. However, if even a single one ought to have been assigned a much lower probability (e.g., 10^-5) – or if he’s simply failed to interesting persuasive essays Seneca, think of a missing condition that has low probability – the calculation is how to a good essay College, completely off. In general, missing parameters and overestimated probabilities will lead to learning to think Harrow, overestimating the likelihood that actions play out how to write essay College, as hoped, and thus overestimating the desirability of University of Amsterdam — Foundation deviating from write a good scholarship application, “tried and good West Buckland School true” behavior and behavior backed by outside views. Correcting for missed parameters and overestimated probabilities will be more likely to write application Epsom, cause “regression to interesting College, normality” (and to the predictions of how to write scholarship essay Epsom other “outside views”) than the reverse. Cluster thinking is more similar to empirically effective prediction methods.
Sequence thinking presumes a particular framework for thinking about the consequences of one’s actions. It may incorporate many considerations, but all are translated into a single language, a single mental model, and in some sense a single “formula.” I believe this is at odds with how successful prediction systems operate, whether in finance, software, or domains such as political forecasting; such systems generally combine the predictions of multiple models in ways that purposefully avoid letting any one model (especially a low-certainty one) carry too much weight when it contradicts the others. On this point, I find Nate Silver’s discussion of his own system and the relationship to the work of Philip Tetlock (and the related concept of foxes vs. hedgehogs) germane: Even though foxes, myself included, aren’t really a conformist lot, we get worried anytime our forecasts differ radically from those being produced by our competitors. Quite a lot of how to an article Northfield Hermon evidence suggests that aggregate or group forecasts are more accurate than individual ones … “Foxes often manage to do inside their heads what you’d do with a whole group of hedgehogs,” Tetlock told me. What he means is that foxes have developed an ability to emulate this consensus process. Instead of asking question of a whole group of how to a good Epsom College experts, they are constantly asking questions of themselves. Often this implies that they will aggregate different types of information together – as a group of persuasive essays College people with different ideas about the world naturally would – instead of treating any one piece of evidence as though it is the Holy Grail.
The Signal and the Noise, pg 66. In sequence thinking, a single large enough number can dominate the entire calculation. In consensus decision making, a person claiming radically larger significance for a particular piece of the picture would likely be dismissed rather than given special weight; in a quantitative prediction system, a component whose conclusion differed from others’ by a factor of write a good Epsom 10^10 would be likely to be the result of a coding error, rather than a consideration that was actually 10^10 times as important as the others. This comes back to the points made by the above two sections: cluster thinking can be superior for its tendency to sandbox or down-weight, rather than linearly up-weight, the models with the most extreme and how to write an article Northfield Mount Hermon deviant conclusions. A cluster-thinking-style “regression to normality” seems to prevent some obviously problematic behavior relating to knowably impaired judgment. One thought experiment that I think illustrates some of the how to a good application essay Epsom College, advantages of learning critically cluster thinking, and how to a good essay Epsom especially cluster thinking that incorporates regression to normality, is imagining that one is clearly and knowably impaired at the moment (for example, drunk), and contemplating a chain of reasoning that suggests high expected value for some unusual and extreme action (such as jumping from Harrow, a height). A similar case is that of a young child contemplating such a chain of reasoning. How To Write A Good Scholarship Epsom College? In both cases, it seems that the person in question should recognize their own elevated fallibility and take special precautions to avoid deviating from “normal” behavior, in essays Seneca College a way that cluster thinking seems much more easily able to how to write a good scholarship application College, accommodate (by setting an absolute limit to the weight carried by an uncertain argument, such that regression to normality can override it no matter what its content) than sequence thinking (in which any “adjustments” are guessed at using the same fallible thought process). The higher one’s opinion of one’s own rationality relative to other people, the less appropriate the above analogy becomes. But it can be easy to Harrow, overestimate one’s own rationality relative to other people (particularly when one’s evidence comes from analyzing people’s statements rather than e.g. their success at achieving their goals), and some component of “If I’m contemplating a strange and potentially highly consequential action, I should be wary and seek robustness (not just magnitude) in write a good application Epsom my justification” seems appropriate for nearly everyone. Sequence thinking seems to tend toward excessive comfort with “ends justify the how to academic essays School, means” type thinking.
Various historical cases of violent fanaticism seem somewhat fairly modeled as sequence thinking gone awry: letting one’s decisions become dominated by how to scholarship essay Epsom College a single overriding concern, which then justifies actions that strongly violate many other principles. Write Website Northfield? (For example, justifying extremely damaging activities based on Marxist reasoning.) Cluster thinking is far from a complete defense against such things: the robustness of a perspective (e.g., a Marxist perspective) can itself be overestimated, and write scholarship application College furthermore a “regression to normality” can encourage conformism with highly problematic beliefs. However, the basic structure of cluster thinking does set up more hurdles for arguments about “the ends” (large-magnitude but speculative down-the-line outcomes) to justify “the means” (actions whose consequences are nearer and good academic essays Buckland School clearer). I believe that invoking “the ends justify the means” (justifying near and clear harms by write scholarship application essay Epsom College pointing to their further-out effects) is sometimes the right thing to do, and is sometimes not. Specifically, I think that the worse the “means,” the more robust (and not just large in claimed magnitude) one’s case for “the ends” ought to how to write good academic West Buckland School, be. Cluster thinking seems to accommodate this view more naturally than sequence thinking. When uncertainty is high, “unknown unknowns” can dominate the impacts of our actions, and write application Epsom College cluster thinking may be better suited to optimizing “unknown unknown” impacts.
Sequence thinking seems, by its nature, to rely on listing the possible outcomes of an persuasive Seneca College action and evaluating the how to write a good scholarship, action according to its probability of achieving these outcomes. I find sequence thinking especially problematic when I specifically expect the unexpected, i.e., when I expect the outcome of an action to depend primarily on factors that haven’t occurred to me. And I believe that the persuasive College, sort of outside views that tend to get more weight in cluster thinking are often good predictors of “unknown unknowns.” For example, obeying common-sense morality (“ends don’t justify the means”) heuristics seems often to lead to unexpected good outcomes, and contradicting such morality seems often to lead to unexpected bad outcomes. As another example, expert opinion often seems a strong predictor of “which way the arguments I haven’t thought of how to a good Epsom yet will point.” It’s hard to formalize “expecting unknown unknowns to be the main impact of how to writing in english University of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation one’s action” in a helpful way within sequence thinking, but it’s a fairly common situation. In particular, when it comes to donations and other altruistic actions, I expect the bulk of the impact to write scholarship application College, come from unknown unknown factors including flow-through effects. Broad market efficiency. Another way of thinking about the case for cluster thinking is to consider the dynamics of broad market efficiency. As I stated in that post:
the more efficient a particular market is, the higher the level of intensity and intelligence around finding good opportunities, and therefore the more intelligent and dedicated one will need to be in order to consistently “beat the market.” The most efficient markets can be consistently beaten only by the most talented/dedicated players, while the least efficient ones can be beaten with fairly little in the way of talent and dedication. When one is considering a topic or action that one knows little about, one should consider the broad market to be highly efficient; therefore, any deviations from the status quo that one’s reasoning calls for are unlikely to be good ideas, regardless of the magnitude of benefit that one’s reasoning ascribes to them. (An amateur stock trader should generally assume his or her opinions about stocks to be ill-founded and to have zero expected value, regardless of how strong the “inside view” argument seems.) By contrast, when one is considering a topic or action that one is relatively well-informed and intelligent about, contradicting “market pricing” is not as much of persuasive College a concern. This is how to a good scholarship application essay, a special case of “as robustness falls, the how to good academic West Buckland, potential weight carried by an argument diminishes – no matter what magnitudes it claims – and a good essay Epsom regression to normality becomes the stronger consideration.” Sequence thinking seems to how to writing essay University of Amsterdam — Foundation, over-encourage “exploiting” as opposed to “exploring” one’s best guesses. I expect this argument to be least compelling to most people, largely because it is difficult for me to draw convincing causality lines and give convincing examples, but to me it is a real argument in favor of cluster thinking. Scholarship Essay Epsom College? It seems to me that people who rely heavily on sequence thinking have a tendency to arrive at a “best guess” as to what cause/charity/etc. ought to be prioritized, and to focus on taking the actions that are implied by their best guess (“exploiting”) rather than on how to write University, actions likely to lead to rethinking their best guess (“exploring”). Write Scholarship Essay College? I would guess that this is because: To the extent that sequence thinking highlights opportunities for learning, it tends to focus on a small number of parameters that dominate the model, and these parameters are often the least tractable in terms of to think critically Harrow School learning more (for example, the value of space colonization). It thus seems often to encourage continued debate on application essay, largely intractable topics. Essay In English University Of Amsterdam — Amsterdam? Cluster thinking highlights many consequential areas of uncertainty and promises returns to clearing up any of how to write College them, leading to more traction on learning and how to Jiaotong-Liverpool University more reduction in “unknown unknowns” over time.
Sequence thinking has a tendency to make different options seem to differ more in value, while cluster thinking tends to make it appear as though any high-uncertainty decision is write scholarship essay, a “close one” that can be modified with more learning. I believe the latter tends to interesting essays Seneca, be a more helpful picture. Cluster thinking tends to have heavier penalties for how to write a good scholarship essay Epsom uncertainty, due to its feature of not allowing the magnitude of a model parameter to overwhelm adjustments for uncertainty. When people are promoting speculative arguments, having to contend with and persuade “cluster thinkers” seems to cause them to do more investigation, do more improving of their arguments, and critically Harrow School generally do more to increase the robustness of their claims. In the domains GiveWell focuses on, it seems that learning more over application essay Epsom College, time is Seneca, paramount. We feel that much of the effective altruist community tends to be quicker than we are to dismiss large areas as unworthy of exploration and to focus in on a few areas. Formal framework reproducing key qualities of cluster thinking. Cluster thinking, despite its seeming inelegance, is in some ways a closer match to what I see as the “idealized” thought process than sequence thinking is.
On a separate page, I have attempted to provide a formal framework describing this “idealized” thought process as I see it, and how this framework deals with extreme uncertainty of the kind we often encounter in making decisions about how to write scholarship essay Epsom where to give. According to this framework, formally combining different mental models of the interesting essays Seneca College, world has a tendency to cap the write scholarship Epsom College, decision-relevance of highly uncertain lines of reasoning – the same tendency that distinguishes cluster thinking from sequence thinking. For more, see my full writeup on this framework, which I have confined to another page because it is interesting essays, long and highly abstract. Advantages of sequence thinking Despite the above considerations, I believe it is extremely valuable to engage in sequence thinking. In fact, my sense is that the world needs more sequence thinking, more than it needs more cluster thinking. Write Epsom? While I believe that cluster thinking is more prone to making the correct decision between different possible (pre-specified) actions, I believe that sequence thinking has other benefits to offer when used appropriately. To be clear, in this section when I say “engaging in learning critically Harrow School sequence thinking” I mean “working on how to write a good application essay Epsom, generating and improving chains of reasoning along the lines of how to write an article for a website Northfield Mount explicit expected-value calculations,” or more generally, “Trying to capture as many relevant considerations as possible in a single unified model of the world.” Cluster thinking includes giving some consideration and weight to the outcomes of such exercises, but does not include generating them.
Many of the how to a good Epsom College, advantages I name have to how to good essays School, do with the tendency of sequence thinking to underweight, or ignore, “outside views” and crude pattern-matches such as historical patterns and expert opinion, as well as “regression to normality”; sequence thinking can make adjustments for such things, but I generally find its method for doing so unsatisfactory, and how to write application essay feel that its greatest strengths come when it does not involve such adjustments. Sequence thinking can generate robust conclusions that then inform cluster thinking. There are times when a long chain of writing essay Campus reasoning can be constructed that has relatively little uncertainty involved (it may involve many probabilistic calculations, but these probabilities are well-understood and the overall model is robust). The extreme case of how to write a good application essay Epsom this is in some science and engineering applications, when sequence thinking is all that is needed to reach the writing Amsterdam Foundation, right conclusion (I might say cluster thinking “reduces to” sequence thinking in these cases, since the sequence-thinking perspective is so much more robust than all other available perspectives). A less extreme case is essay Epsom College, when someone simply puts a great deal of work into how to write pdf Xi’an University, doing as much reflection and investigation as they can of the parameters in how to a good essay Epsom their model, to how to University Amsterdam Campus, the point where they can reasonably be assumed to have relatively little left to learn in the short to medium term. People who have reached such status have, in my opinion, good reason to assign much less uncertainty to their sequence-thinking-generated views and to place much more weight on their conclusions. (Still, even these people should often assign a substantial amount of uncertainty to their views.)
There are many times when I have underestimated the how to a good, weight I ought to place on a sequence-thinking argument because I underestimated how much work had gone into investigating and reflecting on its parameters. I have been initially resistant to many ideas that I now regard as extremely important, such as the greater cost-effectiveness of developing-world as opposed to developed-world aid, the potential gains to labor mobility, and views of “long-term future” effective altruists on the most worrying global catastrophic risks, all of which appeared to me at first to write an article, be based on naive chains of logic but which I now believe to write essay Epsom, have been more thoroughly researched – and to have less uncertainty around key parameters – than I had thought. Sequence thinking is more favorable to generating creative, unconventional, and nonconformist ideas. I often feel that people in the effective altruist community do too little regression to normality, but I believe that most people in the world do far too much. Any thinking style that provides a “regression to write academic Buckland, normality”-independent way of a good reaching hypotheses has major advantages. Sequence thinking provides a way of how to an article for a website Hermon seeing where a chain of reasoning goes when historical observations, conventional wisdom, expert opinion and other “outside views” are suspended. Write Scholarship Application Essay Epsom College? As such, it can generate the kind of ideas that challenge long-held assumptions and move knowledge forward (the cases I list in the immediately previous section are some smaller-scale examples; many scientific breakthroughs seem to fit in this category as well).
Sequence thinking is write pdf Xi’an, also generally an important component in the formation of expert opinion (more below), which is usually a major input into cluster thinking. Sequence thinking is how to write application Epsom, better-suited to transparency, discussion and reflection. I generally find it very hard to formalize and interesting College explain what “outside views” I am bringing to a decision, how I am weighing them against each other, and why I have the level of certainty I do in each view. Many of my outside views consist of heuristics (i.e., “actions fitting pattern X don’t turn out well”) that come partly from personal experiences and observations that are difficult to introspect on, and even more difficult to share in ways that others would be able to comprehend and informedly critique them. Sequence thinking tends to consist of how to scholarship essay College breaking a decision down along lines that are well-suited to communication, often in how to write essay IUBH School of Business & Management terms of write application essay Epsom a chain of causality (e.g., “This action will lead to A, which will lead to an article, B, which will lead to outcome-of-interest C if D and E are also true”). This approach can be clumsy at accommodating certain outside views that don’t necessarily apply to a particular sub-prediction (for example, many heuristics are of the form “actions fitting pattern X don’t turn out a good scholarship College, well for reasons that are hard to visualize in write Mount advance”).
However, sequence thinking usually results in essay College a chain of an analytical reasoning that can be explicitly laid out, reflected on, and discussed. Consistent with this, I think the cost-effectiveness analysis we’ve done of top charities has probably added more value in terms of “causing us to reflect on our views, clarify our views and debate our views, thereby highlighting new key questions” than in terms of “marking some top charities as more cost-effective than others.” I have often been pushed, by people who heavily favor sequence thinking, to put more work into clarifying my own views, and I’ve rarely regretted doing so. Sequence thinking can lead to how to write scholarship application essay Epsom, deeper understanding. Partly because it is better-suited to explicit discussion and reflection, and partly because it tends to focus on chains of causality without deep integration of poorly-understood but empirically observed “outside view” patterns, sequence thinking often seems necessary in order to understand a particular issue very deeply. Learning To Think Critically? Understanding an issue deeply, to me, includes (a) being able to make good predictions in radically unfamiliar contexts (thus, not relying on “outside views” that are based on patterns from familiar contexts); (b) matching and surpassing the how to write scholarship essay, knowledge of other people, to the point where “broad market efficiency” can be more readily dismissed. In my view, people who rely heavily on sequence thinking often seem to write an article for a Northfield, have inferior understanding of subjects they aren’t familiar with, and to ask naive questions, but as their familiarity increases they eventually reach greater depth of understanding; by how to write scholarship essay Epsom contrast, cluster-thinking-reliant people often have reasonable beliefs even when knowing little about a topic, but don’t improve nearly as much with more study. At GiveWell, we often use a great deal of sequence thinking when exploring a topic (less so when coming to how to an article University, a final recommendation), and write a good scholarship application essay Epsom often feel the need to apologize in an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University advance to the people we interview for asking naive-seeming questions. In order to reap this benefit of how to scholarship Epsom sequence thinking, one must do a good job stress-testing and challenging one’s understanding, rather than being content with it as it is.
This is where the “incentives to investigate” provided by cluster thinking can be crucial, and this is why (as discussed below) my ideal is to switch between the two modes. Sequence thinking can be a good antidote to scope insensitivity, since it translates different factors into a single framework in which they can be weighed against each other. I do not believe scope insensitivity is the only, or most important, danger in making giving decisions, but I do find sequence thinking extremely valuable in good academic essays Buckland correcting for it. Many seem to believe that sequence thinking is less prone to various other cognitive biases, and in general that it represents an antidote to write a good scholarship application Epsom, the risks of using “intuition” or “system 1.” I am unsure of how legitimate this view is. How To Write For A Northfield Mount? When making decisions with high levels of how to scholarship Epsom uncertainty involved, sequence thinking is (like cluster thinking) dominated by write good academic essays intuition. A Good Application Essay Epsom? Many of the most important parameters in one’s model or expected-value calculation must be guessed at, and it often seems possible to reach whatever conclusion one wishes. Sequence thinking often encourages one to implicitly trust one’s intuitions about difficult-to-intuit parameters (e.g., “value of write pdf Xi’an space colonization”) rather than trusting one’s more holistic intuitions about the choice being made – not necessarily an improvement, in my view. Cluster thinking and argumentation I’ve argued that cluster thinking is how to a good scholarship application Epsom, generally superior for reaching good conclusions, but harder to describe and model explicitly.
While I believe transparency of thought is useful and important, it should not be confused with rationality of thought. I’ve sometimes observed an intelligent cluster thinker, when asked why s/he believes something, give a single rather unconvincing “outside view” related reason. I’ve suspected, in some such cases, that the in english Amsterdam Foundation Campus, person is actually processing a large number of different “outside views” in a good scholarship application a way that is difficult to introspect on, and being unable to cite the interesting persuasive Seneca College, full set of perspectives with weights, returns a single perspective with relatively (but not absolutely) high weight. I believe this dynamic sometimes leads sequence thinkers to underestimate cluster thinkers. One of my hopes for this piece is to help people better understand cluster thinking, and in particular, how one can continue to make progress in a discussion even after a seemingly argument-stopping comment like “I see no problem with your reasoning, but I’m not placing much weight on it anyway” is how to write application College, made. In such a situation, it is important to how to in english Campus, ask not just whether there are explicit problems with one’s argument, but how much uncertainty there is in one’s argument (even if such uncertainty doesn’t clearly skew the calculation in write a good application one direction or another) and whether other arguments, using substantially different mental models, give the same conclusion. Write For A Northfield? When engaging with cluster thinking, improving one’s justification of a probability or other parameter – even if it has already been agreed to how to write scholarship application essay Epsom, by both parties as a “best guess” – has value; citing unrelated heuristics and patterns has value as well. To give an example, many people are aware of the basic argument that donations can do more good when targeting the developing-world poor rather than the interesting persuasive essays College, developed-world poor: the developing-world poor have substantially worse incomes and how to a good living conditions, and an article pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University the interventions charities carry out are commonly claimed to be substantially cheaper on per-person or per-life-saved basis. However, many (including myself) take these arguments more seriously on learning things like “people I respect mostly agree with this conclusion”; “developing-world charities’ activities are generally more robustly evidence-supported, in addition to cheaper”; “thorough, skeptical versions of ‘cost per write a good application Epsom College, life saved’ estimates are worse than the figures touted by charities, but still impressive”; “differences in Foundation Campus wealth are so pronounced that “hunger” is scholarship application essay Epsom College, defined completely differently for the U.S. vs. developing countries“; “aid agencies were behind undisputed major achievements such as the interesting persuasive Seneca College, eradication of smallpox”; etc. The function of such findings isn’t necessarily to a good essay Epsom, address specific objections to the basic argument, but rather to put its claims on more solid footing – to improve the learning to think critically, robustness of the argument. The balance I try to strike As implied above, I believe sequence thinking is valuable for idea generation, reflection and discussion, while cluster thinking is best for making the final choice between options.
I try to a good scholarship College, use the two types of thinking accordingly. GiveWell often puts a great deal of work into understanding the causal chain of a charity’s activities, estimating the an article pdf Xi’an, “cost per life saved,” etc., while ultimately being willing to how to a good Epsom College, accept some missing links and academic West Buckland School place limited weight on these things when it comes to final recommendations. However, there are also times in which I let sequence thinking dominate my decisions (not just my investigations), for how to a good College the following reasons. One of the great strengths of sequence thinking is how to in english of Amsterdam — Campus, its ability to generate ideas that contradict conventional wisdom and easily observable patterns, yet have some compelling logic of how to write a good essay College their own. For brevity, I will call these “novel ideas” (though a key aspect of such ideas is that they are not just “different” but also “promising”). I believe that novel ideas are usually flawed, but often contain some important insight. Write An Article Mount Hermon? Because the how to write application Epsom, value of new ideas is high, promoting novel ideas – in a way that is write an article Mount Hermon, likely to lead to stress-testing them, refining them, and application ultimately bringing about how to write essays more widespread recognition of their positive aspects – has significant positive expected value. At the how to a good essay, same time, a given novel idea is unlikely to be valid in its current form, and quietly acting on it (when not connected to interesting, “promoting” it in the marketplace of ideas, leading to its refinement and/or widespread adoption) may have negative expected value. One example of this “novel ideas” dynamic is the how to write a good application essay, charities recommended by GiveWell in 2006 or 2007: GiveWell at how to write IUBH, that time had a philosophy and methodology with important advantages over other resources, but it was also in how to write a good scholarship Epsom College a relatively primitive form and an article pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University needed a great deal of work. Supporting GiveWell’s recommendations of how to write scholarship Epsom College that time – in an article Mount a way that could be attributed to GiveWell – led to how to write a good scholarship essay, increasing attention and how to good West Buckland School influence for GiveWell, which was evolving quickly and how to scholarship application essay becoming a more sophisticated and influential resource. However, if not for how to an article University GiveWell’s ongoing evolution, supporting its recommended charities would not have had the sort of expected value that it naively appeared to (according to our over-optimistic “cost per application essay Epsom College, life saved” figures of the time). (Note that this paragraph is intended to give an example of the “novel ideas” dynamic I described, but does not fit the themes of the post otherwise.
Our recommendations weren’t purely a product of sequence thinking but rather of a combination of sequence and cluster thinking.) For me, a basic rule of thumb is that it’s worth making some degree of bet on novel ideas, even when the ideas are likely flawed, when it’s the learning School, kind of bet that (a) facilitates the stress-testing, refinement, and growing influence of how to a good scholarship College these ideas; (b) does not interfere with other, more promising bets on other novel ideas. So it makes sense to start, run, or support an organization based on a promising but (because dependent on sequence thinking, and in tension with various outside views) likely flawed idea … if (a) the organization is well-suited to learning, refining, and interesting stress-testing its ideas and growing its influence over time; (b) starting or supporting the organization does not interfere with one’s support of other, more promising novel ideas. It makes sense to do so even when cluster thinking suggests that the novel idea’s conclusions are incorrect, to the extent that quite literal endorsement of the novel idea would be “wrong.” When we started GiveWell, I believed that we were likely wrong about write a good scholarship application essay College many of the things that seemed to us from an inside, sequence-thinking view to be true, but that it was worth acting on how to pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool, these things anyway, because of the how to scholarship application essay Epsom College, above dynamic. (I am referring more to interesting persuasive, our theories about how we could influence donors and have impact than to our theories about which charities were best, which we tried to write Epsom, make as robust as we could, while realizing that they were still quite uncertain.) We believed we were onto some underappreciated truth, but that we didn’t yet know what it was, and writing in english University Foundation Campus were “provisionally accepting” our own novel ideas because we could afford to scholarship application essay, do so without jeopardizing our overall careers and because they seemed to how to in english Foundation Campus, be the novel ideas most worth making this sort of bet on. We expected our ideas to evolve, and rather than taking them as true we tried to stress-test them by how to a good application Epsom examining as many different angles as we could (for example, visiting a recommended charity’s work in the field even though we couldn’t say in advance which aspect of our views this would affect).
There were other novel ideas that we found interesting as well, but incorporating them too deeply into our work (or personal lives) would have interfered with our ability to participate in how to write Jiaotong-Liverpool this dynamic. The above line of argument justifies behavior that can seem otherwise strange and how to a good essay Epsom College self-contradictory. For example, it can justify advocating and acting to some degree on writing essay of Amsterdam — Amsterdam, a novel idea, while not living one’s life fully consistently with this idea (e.g., working to promote Peter Singer’s ideas about the case for giving more generously, while not actually giving as much as his ideas would literally imply one should). When considering possible actions including “avoiding factory-farmed meat,” “giving to the most apparently cost-effective charity,” etc., I am always asking not only a good essay Epsom College “Does this idea seem valid to me?” but “Am I acting on write good essays School, this idea in write application Epsom College a way that promotes it and how to an article for a website Northfield Hermon facilitates its evolution, and write scholarship application does not interfere with my promotion of other more promising ideas?” As such, I tend to change my own behavior enough to reap a good portion of the benefits of supporting/promoting an idea but not as much as literal acceptance of the how to essay in english Amsterdam, idea would imply. I have a baseline level of stability and conservatism in the way I live my life, which my bets on novel ideas are layered on top of in a way that fits well within my risk tolerance. Promoting a sequence-thinking-based idea in a cluster-thinking-based world leads to examining the idea from many angles, looking for application Epsom College many unrelated (or minimally related) arguments in interesting persuasive Seneca its favor, and generally working toward positive evolution of the idea. The ideal, from my perspective, is to use cluster thinking to evaluate the ultimate likely validity of ideas, while retaining one’s ability to (without undue risk) promote and get excited about sequence-thinking-generated ideas that may eventually change the application College, world. For one with few resources for idea promotion and exploration, this may mean picking a very small number of bets. For one who expects to how to write pdf Xi’an University, influence substantial resources – as GiveWell currently does – it is rational to simultaneously support/promote work in multiple different causes, each of which could be promising under certain assumptions and parameters (regarding how much value we should estimate in the far future, how much suffering we should ascribe to how to a good scholarship essay Epsom College, animals, etc.), even if the assumptions and to think critically Harrow School parameters that would support one cause contradict those that would support another.
When choosing between causes to write application essay Epsom College, support, cluster thinking – rather than choosing one’s best-guess for each parameter and going from there – is called for. Thanks for the excellent post! How do you incorporate specific and confident “adjustments” into your cluster thinking process, such as the Synsepalum dulcificum example I gave in persuasive Seneca Model combination and adjustment? Great post, I expect it will be referenced often in the future. I think getting results extremely favoring one cause or intervention by write a good scholarship Epsom College many orders of persuasive essays Seneca College magnitude in expected value often isn’t so much a problem with sequential thinking, as of only exploring the how to application, maximum potential gains for essay IUBH & Management some causes but not others.
For example, if one thinks that political activity is generally more leveraged than paying for direct interventions, then evaluating cause A against cause B with the assumption that cause A interventions will be political but cause B interventions won’t can distort. Similarly, attending to impact on write a good scholarship Epsom College, future generations when assessing cause X but not cause Y can produce a big skew. But if one factors out such common influences and makes the maximalist case for plausible top picks in EV terms they won’t be ten orders of magnitude apart (in absolute value, at writing essay in english University Campus, least, they may differ in essay Epsom expected sign). Then one can apply all sorts of particular arguments and learning School lines of evidence to weight those cases for high value against one another. There’s also the general problem of people not flagging whether they are talking about values within a model or all-things considered (perhaps because of confusion themselves, perhaps to a good essay, avoid distraction in a piece, perhaps for rhetoric). I think sequence thinking is perhaps a bit more efficient. How do factor graphs fit into either the write an analytical essay IUBH School of Business, sequence or cluster thinking paradigms? “I’ve suspected, in some such cases, that the person is actually processing a large number of different “outside views” in a way that is difficult to introspect on, and write a good scholarship application essay Epsom College being unable to write IUBH School of Business & Management, cite the full set of perspectives with weights, returns a single perspective with relatively (but not absolutely) high weight.” I like this point.
But it also looks very similar to how to application College, rationalisation, where the response to having one argument refuted is to simply raise a new one, regardless of how important each was in forming the original conclusion. Do you have any feeling for how to write an analytical IUBH & Management how to recognise the difference between rationalisation and how to write a good application essay Epsom sophisticated assimilation of perspectives in your own mind, or how to detect interact with it in others? Thanks for the comments, all. Luke: the learning to think School, sort of “adjustment” you describe could be integrated into write essay Epsom College, existing models (“I usually like Thai food, though these aren’t usual circumstances”) and/or represented as its own model (“I expect miraculin to change my tastes, and I’m quite confident in this, enough to outweigh the predictions of other models”). Or it could be integrated using a different process entirely; I meant this post to contrast two simplified models of thinking rather than to propose any particular “complete” formula for learning to think reaching decisions. Carl : I agree that the how to a good essay Epsom College, method you suggest for to think critically Harrow comparing causes (e.g., making sure to include the write, maximalist case for all possibilities) will lead to how to writing essay of Amsterdam —, a degree of how to College convergence, but I think it’s hard to interesting essays College, say just how much convergence. A sequence thinking framework often requires that one make extremely uncertain guesses regarding, e.g., the flow-through effects of how to write a good scholarship essay bednets or the probability of existential risk aversion, and variation in such guesses alone (even within the how to good academic essays Buckland School, range of defensibility) can overwhelm other important factors in write a good scholarship essay College the final estimate (perhaps not by ten orders of magnitude, but by enough to cause high sensitivity to these guesses). Write University? I also think it’s worth noting that a “cluster thinking” style led me to be skeptical of various claims about massive differences even before arguments about flow-through effects were on how to write essay College, my radar. How To An Article Hermon? I think cluster thinking often helps one reach reasonable conclusions without having to get as many things right (compared to sequence thinking); it allows more margin for how to write a good application essay Epsom College error. Michael Miller: my feeling is that cluster thinking is generally more efficient, in the sense of learning to think critically School reaching reasonable conclusions with less effort/time/mental resources. How To A Good Scholarship Application Essay College? Good sequence thinking requires building a careful model of the world, and taking great care not to get any particular piece badly wrong or omit a major consideration.
It also tends to involve high-stakes guesses about in english of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation Campus uncertain parameters. How To A Good Scholarship Essay? Cluster thinking tends to be less sensitive to how to write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool, any one parameter, so it requires less precision, especially when a large number of perspectives are integrated. Write Scholarship? Note that the two are not distinguished by interesting essays Seneca College what information they use but by how they weigh different considerations against how to a good scholarship application essay each other; I think “find which way each consideration points and limit the how to Amsterdam Foundation, weight of the how to College, more uncertain ones” tends to be easier than “figure out how to integrate each consideration within a unified model.” Possibly for how to essay in english University of Amsterdam — these reasons, cluster thinking seems to me to be more common, especially among those who have limited time to think things through. I’m not familiar with factor graphs, so can’t answer your other question. Helen Toner: the main thing I’d say is that detecting the difference between a justified “cluster-style” view and an unjustified, rationalized view is often not easy. I often mistake one for the other, in both directions. I’d like to a good scholarship essay Epsom, see sequence thinkers recognize this difficulty more and be slower to jump to write pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, the conclusion that a particular person’s position is not worth considering, especially when there are other reasons to believe that person is credible.
I usually require a lot of thought and information to decide one way or the other, and in the meantime I put an intermediate amount of weight on the person in question’s view. Great post! This dyad of reasoning styles seems to show up in many domains, including artificial intelligence ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neats_vs._scruffies ), economics (central planning vs. free markets), and politics (authoritarianism vs. democracy, http://www.amazon.com/Democratic-Reason-Politics-Collective-Intelligence/dp/0691155658 ). Unfortunately, it seems we are doomed to peculiar behaviour with either method. Let’s say we are making a cluster-thinking comparison of how to a good scholarship application Epsom College Charity A, which focusses on raising the write website Northfield Mount, likelihood of space colonisation, against Charity B, which helps people but has no expected impact on space colonisation. At the time, we believe the solar system is the only thing that exists. How To A Good Application? Nonetheless, thanks to an article pdf Xi’an University, the great expanse of the how to a good scholarship essay College, solar system, Charity A gets maximum marks (5 out of writing in english University of Amsterdam — Foundation 5) for a good essay Epsom College possible expected impact. But when all ‘clusters’ are combined into an overall judgement, it still comes out behind Charity B. Soon after, scientists go away and make a huge discovery – in fact there are 100 billion galaxies each with 100 billion stars. The universe is 10^22 larger than we thought!
We naturally decide to go back and reassess Charity A against Charity B. However, because we are boxing in the importance of the observation ‘expected value is high because space is huge’, Charity B remains better by write an analytical essay School of Business & Management about the write application Epsom College, same margin. Write Essay IUBH School? Despite what seems like an extraordinary increase in the importance of leaving Earth – however valuable we thought it was before – our decision remains the write a good application Epsom, same. On the other hand, someone who exclusively uses sequence thinking is vulnerable to Pascal’s mugging and can easily become ‘fanatical’ – impossible to convince that anything else is important no matter how many other considerations can be brought to bear. I value this post for laying out the pros and cons of each style. Because there are so many, it’s easy to agree with the how to website, list of the considerations but still reach a different conclusion. Personally, I am most worried about how to write application Epsom College scale insensitivity, both outside of the how to for a Hermon, effective altruism movement and inside it. Write A Good Application College? As a result, I would rather see more use of sequence thinking, though nobody I know favours using just one approach. A conjecture on my part: Cluster thinking seems to be a good way to improve your median outcome, or improve your accuracy in a binary prediction.
It will lower your chances of failing because of to think critically a single mistake in one part of your calculation. But when it fails, it can fail hugely, for failing to give sufficient weight to how to application Epsom College, an insight that was much more important than others. In particular, its scope insensitivity means that while we should expect it to fail less often, its failures will be concentrated in how to University Amsterdam the scenarios that matter most (those where your potential impact was highest). As a result, it may still lower your average/expected outcome. Robert, I do agree that each style of application essay Epsom thinking leads to peculiar behavior; I see each as only an approximation of the ideal thought process. That said, depending on the particulars, I wouldn’t necessarily characterize the behavior you’re describing (re: a discovery about the size of the universe) as peculiar or wrong.
The ideal thought process as I see it could easily, quite rationally and consistent with expected value maximization, have just such a reaction. More at the technical supplement to the post. For my part, I would disagree with the claim that cluster thinking tends to optimize for the median but not the expectation. Many of the examples in how to in english University Amsterdam Foundation Campus this post (e.g., the one about a good scholarship application essay Epsom College impaired judgment as well as the bit about ends vs. means) were meant to imply this by an article for a Northfield Mount Hermon showing how sequence thinking leads to things that seem “clearly wrong/irrational” and not just “wrong most of the time.” The technical supplement also spells out write a good essay Epsom, why I think this. I think sequence thinking becomes more valuable when it interacts in the appropriate way with the marketplace of how to write for a website Northfield Mount ideas. Write A Good Scholarship Essay Epsom College? I think the how to website Mount Hermon, best combination is sequence thinking for exploration and cluster thinking for evaluation, as outlined at the end of the post, and how to write a good essay College I think this combination is likely to do well at interesting Seneca, addressing scope insensitivity issues, if a subset of people choose to explore seemingly high-priority issues and work on how to write application, strengthening the case for them. A problem with Cluster thinking is that what the how to write pdf Xi’an, system has is not multiple perspectives but the system’s beliefs about other perspectives. How To A Good Scholarship Application Epsom College? In sequence thinking the system can hold this set of beliefs:
In cluster thinking what we have is. [holds system belief_2 perspective_1] [holds system belief_n perspective_1] [holds system belief_2 perspective_k] [holds system belief_n perspective_k] It isn’t really other perspectives it is what the system believes other perspectives to be, which may or may not be accurate. Thanks for this post and learning to think Harrow your attempt at application essay, a more technical description of a model. I appreciate both, in different ways.
I like the how to write good essays West Buckland School, way that this post provides an explicit discussion of the trade-offs between these different style of approaches. How To Write Essay Epsom College? I had been planning to write a piece on the pros and cons of explicit models (similar to what you have called sequence thinking), as I think it is useful to have this more widely known and discussed. How To Write For A? But you’ve already covered most of the ground, as well as a couple of points I hadn’t thought of. One major technique which I think is important but which you don’t mention is this: if you have several models which give very different answers, this provides evidence that you should go back and re-examine your assumptions, searching for more consistency. This is close to the time-honoured tradition of “sanity-checking” the results of calculations. How To Write A Good College? It can be abused, and you shouldn’t put too much confidence in how to pdf Xi’an University the fact that several models agree if you had to massage them to do so, but it is one of the more important tools available to us in trying to integrate these different types of thinking. I like the fact that you have tried to write down precise versions of the procedure in the linked post. As you remark, one of the write scholarship Epsom College, general virtues of sequence thinking is interesting persuasive essays College, that it allows more precise discussion and refinements, in a way that cluster thinking does not.
Unfortunately, there are a number of write scholarship application essay unclarities and what appear to be mistakes in that write-up (for example in the worked example you appear to conflate expected value and median, when these diverge in important ways in the example). I take the post as having value in gesturing towards the sort of how to write an article pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool way that you think we should be exploring this area, and the type of write application essay Epsom analysis you would like to see more of, but I worry that it is too far from working at the moment to be worth trying to use. That’s not necessarily a problem — it’s often the case with early-stage models. But does it agree with your thinking? I am happy to provide more detailed comments, and explore how we could improve it, but I’m not sure this is the right forum for that. Holden, thanks for critically writing this interesting post and write essay Epsom College taking the time to academic essays West, explain your approach to how to a good scholarship essay Epsom, decision-making in detail. As informally outlined, I think the ideas here have a lot of merit. One thing you didn’t highlight is that cluster thinking can highlight opportunities for learning. How To Write An Article Northfield Mount? When two seemingly important perspectives disagree, it often indicates that there is something important to a good application essay Epsom College, be learned about one of the perspectives or how it should be applied. Write IUBH School? People who focus on one perspective to the exclusion of others can miss out on these learning opportunities.
Some concerns/additional thoughts about cluster thinking: (A) I think it was interesting to see your response to Helen’s concern about rationalization in how to write essay Epsom cluster thinking. Writing Amsterdam Foundation? It is hard to tell whether some other cluster thinker is rationalizing, but I’m at least as concerned about my own rationalization. If I have 10 arguments for my view, unless someone painstakingly refutes a few of my arguments at once (a level of attention that is rare), there’s a concern that I’ll say, “Well, sure you overcame one of the arguments for my view, but I have nine other arguments.” Going back to my comment above, it would be important for a good cluster thinker to how to a good application essay College, revisit their other arguments whenever one of them gets a good pummeling. (B) Another aspect of your informal framework (presented in the main post) that seems problematic is the focus on making decisions on the basis of write an article for a Northfield certainty-weighted perspective, to the exclusion of importance-weighted perspectives.
Abstractly speaking, it seems that one very uncertain but very important perspective should be able to how to write a good scholarship application essay Epsom, outweigh other perspectives. More concretely, if the persuasive Seneca, arguments against X are all of the form “doing X would be weird,” “doing X would be rude,” and write essay College “doing X would violate company policy,” but the how to writing essay Amsterdam, arguments in against doing X are of the form “I can imagine a way in a good scholarship application essay Epsom College which doing X would cause a nuclear meltdown,” I want a decision procedure that allows me to not do X. (C) Perhaps related to (B), suppose you’re ranking giving opportunities in terms of learning School intervention quality, organization quality, room for more funding, and monitoring and evaluation (toy example). Should we give to how to write scholarship essay College, a highly transparent opera charity run by great people that has lots of room for more funding rather than a vaccination charity that is just average (or maybe pretty good) along the other dimensions? I worry that your framework would make the opera charity more competitive than I think it should be. I guess the devil would be in the details. A couple of how to in english University of Amsterdam — Foundation Campus issues/questions regarding the technical framework you’ve developed: I believe that your formal framework (presented here: https://www.givewell.org/modeling-extreme-model-uncertainty) puts more weight on a model that has a lot of variance, but clearly higher expected value than a model with low variance and low expected value.
And sometimes that seems like a mistake. For example, suppose I have two models m_1 and m_2, and suppose e_1 = 1000, e_2 = 10000, u_1 = 10, and u_2 = 100. Using your formula, I get that the expectation of taking the bet is: [1000/(10^2) + 10000/(100^2)] / [1/(10^2) + 1/(100^2)] = 1089 (approximately) So my overall expected value of this bet is write a good scholarship application essay College, dominated by m_1, but intuitively it should be dominated by m_2, which is saying the impact is almost definitely greater than 1000. Put another way, your framework sees a huge difference between switching the write an article website Mount, u_i on the two models above, but I don’t think that’s justified. A second issue that I only realized after reading this a few times was that the models you’re describing aren’t necessarily incompatible ways of how to write a good essay College looking at a question; instead they are sort of complementary. This makes sense in an analytical essay of Business & Management the informal framework—and reinforces the “sanity check” phenomenon that Owen and I describe above. A Good Scholarship Application? However, it does seem fairly different from how to write good academic essays, what I would think is the typical Bayesian way of thinking about uncertainty over scholarship Epsom, multiple models. Usually, the write academic essays West School, models/hypotheses one would consider would be mutually exclusive rather than complementary. Operating in that kind of framework, my first instinct for calculating overall expected value would be to have a probability distribution Pr over the m_i and look at:
Can you say more about why you didn’t approach the problem in this way? I’m particularly curious about why there isn’t anything like a prior over models in your framework. To clarify a bit: I generally agree with you about the strengths and a good application Epsom weaknesses of cluster thinking, and your diagnosis that the EA crowd is more sequence-thinking oriented than lots of people. I’m more concerned about the learning to think critically Harrow, formal model than the informal model. With the informal model, my main concern is that using it leads to write, rationalization. I think Nick makes an important distinction in how we may think about write an analytical essay IUBH School of Business model combination. Two natural and opposed approaches are: (1) Assume that one and only one of the models is correct, and update in how to a good scholarship application essay Epsom College a Bayesian manner. (2) Assume that all of the models give independent information about the how to writing University Amsterdam Campus, world. Of course in write a good scholarship application essay Epsom College fact neither of these can be right. How To Of Amsterdam — Foundation? It is certain that none of our models is an entirely accurate description of the world.
But if we have two models which tell us radically different things, each with a similarly high level of confidence, the appropriate conclusion is not that the how to write application essay, true value lies somewhere in the middle, and how to write an article pdf Xi’an University each was unlucky with the amount of noise; rather we should think that one of the models is badly wrong. Questions of how to how to a good scholarship application essay College, combine models are studied in machine learning. They’re mostly looking at classification tasks, and they don’t appear to an analytical essay IUBH School of Business, have any methods we could port over to estimation tasks directly, but it seems worth being aware of the how to write a good application essay Epsom, area, as there may be some shared insights: The other problem with Cluster Thinking is (I believe) that the mind seeks coherence, and critically Harrow while it may hold beliefs about what others believes (other points of view) it generally accepts or rejects these points of view when it comes to reasoning. Paul Thagard has done some research on a good scholarship essay Epsom, Coherence in General, and Jean Piaget did some work on the assimilative and accommodative processes involved in accepting new information and changing one’s opinion.
In fact, in his book, The Development of Thought, (1978, 1985) he states that “A system of assimilation tends to feed itself” which I take to mean that a cognitive system will seek to how to write good academic West, coherently integrate new information, accepting information compatible with what it already believes and rejecting information that is how to a good scholarship essay, incompatible with its beliefs. I think coherence will be an issue if one is to seriously implement Cluster Thinking. By the way, I have no preference to Sequence or Cluster thinking, I think they are both new concepts which give another lens to mental models. These are just my observations. Great post! A small comment: I think it might be unfair to hold up the Copenhagen Consensus as the paradigm of sequence thinking. While they give cost-benefit analysis a significant role in their evaluations, it’s always followed by a qualitative discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the how to write academic essays Buckland, model. Moreover, their overall ranking is based on the judgement of a panel of how to write essay Epsom College leading economists, using the CBA as an input, but often not ranking in learning to think critically School order of CB ratio. This looks like cluster thinking to me! Thanks for the further comments, all.
Michael Miller: I’m still not following you. I didn’t mean to scholarship application essay Epsom, define cluster thinking via “forming models of what other people think” but rather “using different mental models with different implications.” For example, “Historical patterns imply this action won’t go well; best-guess expected-value calculations imply that it will.” Owen, thanks for all the thoughts. A few responses: On revisiting models when they disagree: I agree that this can be a very useful thing to do, and think it often belongs in sophisticated versions of the “model combination and adjustment” step. Note that a common “adjustment” is to discard outliers, which would largely reinforce the qualitative tendencies of cluster thinking (as opposed to write an article pdf Xi’an, sequence thinking). I agree with your general comments on write application, the formal model – it is meant to gesture at how I’m thinking rather than to an article pdf Xi’an University, be used as a tool. I think it’s very poorly suited to actual use in making decisions, and a good application Epsom may never get there. That said, I’d still be happy to write good essays West, have your more detailed comments if it’s convenient for you to share them. This comment thread seems like an appropriate place to do so; email would work too. On means vs. How To A Good Scholarship Application Epsom? medians: Jacob and interesting persuasive Seneca I were aware of this issue but neglected to address it explicitly in the writeup.
We purposefully used distribution types that are extraordinarily fat-tailed, in order to pre-empt claims that inappropriately thin tails are doing most of the work. A Good Application Epsom College? The result of this is that we used distributions with some strange properties. For A Mount? The means follow the same qualitative pattern as the medians, but they are much higher, so much so that even the “pessimistic” models imply very high expected value. To get more intuitive means, we would have had to use much less intuitive parameters and/or use less fat-tailed distributions. I think what we did works as an write a good application Epsom illustration, but you’re right that it neglects to interesting persuasive essays, mention this issue. Re: complementary vs. mutually exclusive models (both Owen and Nick) : the idea is that the models are not mutually exclusive, but simply represent different ways of reasoning toward a conclusion. I believe that in real-world decision-making (as well as in many algorithmic prediction systems), it is more common to have multiple ways of looking at a problem (which be correlated and overlapping) than it is to be deciding between multiple mutually exclusive models of the world, one of which is strictly best.
If doing the essay College, latter, I agree that Nick’s approach would be right, but for writing University of Amsterdam — the former case, it is a good application essay, important to an analytical IUBH School of Business & Management, use all the how to write scholarship, information we have about the different levels of model uncertainty for different models, and the approach I’ve proposed seems to do that better than simple probability-weighting of conclusions. I agree with you about the danger of how to write essays rationalization. I also think sequence thinking can be used for rationalization, but one advantage of sequence thinking is scholarship application Epsom College, its transparency, which (if one seeks out criticism) may work against rationalization. I used the phrase “certainty-weighted” once in the post for shorthand, but I didn’t mean to imply that cluster thinking uses the level of certainty as the only input into the decision-weight carried by each perspective. Rather, I’d say that the weight of each perspective is *limited* according to the degree of certainty. The idea is something more like “Extraordinarily uncertain arguments can only how to Mount matter a little; moderately certain arguments can matter a lot, if they say that something is very important; highly certain arguments can matter overwhelmingly, if they say that something is overwhelmingly important.” I think this formulation avoids a lot of the problems that pure certainty-weighting would have, and a good largely addresses the point about the opera charity (though I could imagine cases in which I’d rather give to a particular opera charity than to how to Jiaotong-Liverpool University, a particular vaccination charity). Write A Good Essay College? That said, the basic idea that “a sufficiently uncertain perspective can’t carry the decision no matter how important it claims to be” seems important to to think Harrow, cluster thinking, and how to defensible, on the grounds that getting rid of that property seems to open the doors to many of the problematic properties of sequence thinking (those related to how to write academic essays West Buckland, high sensitivity to a small number of uncertain parameters). How To Write Scholarship Application Epsom? Regarding this: “For example, suppose I have two models m_1 and m_2, and suppose e_1 = 1000, e_2 = 10000, u_1 = 10, and how to writing in english of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation Campus u_2 = 100. ” The conclusion you find problematic seems reasonable to me. It’s true that model 2 is very confident that the how to scholarship essay College, action has very high expected value, but model 1 is an article Northfield Mount, enormously more confident that it doesn’t. After discussing this with another staffer, I think the intuition that this is wrong comes from the fact that it is a strange case due to the small degree of overlap between the two probability distributions; I think it can be argued that the how to essay, formula’s result is reasonable and intuitively defensible, but it would take an extended writeup or discussion (which I’d be willing to have offline if you’d like). On using mental models.
Lets take a real example. Interesting Persuasive Essays College? Suppose we have a computer program which uses both Sequence Thinking and Cluster thinking. A Good Scholarship Application Essay Epsom College? How would we represent their models. Interesting Persuasive Seneca? I’ll use The Premise Language for shorthand (see http://premiseai.tumblr.com): (let believe :who :what) (let exists :what)
(let not-exists :what) [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] (let viewpoint :which :what ) [viewpoint :which Buddhism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]]
[viewpoint :which Atheism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Christianity. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Islam. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Judaism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])]
[believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Agnosticism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]]
[believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Hinduism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] In both cases Sequence thinking and Cluster thinking it is the cognitive system holding the belief sets. Ergo, it is the cognitive system’s belief set about another party’s beliefs, and a good application Epsom not the other party’s beliefs themselves. In the above example, All parties are in agreement on one another’s positions. However, suppose one party holds a viewpoint which differs from the how to for a website Northfield, cognitive system’s representation of their viewpoint. For example, (Let’s use the Agnostics since they don’t care): [viewpoint :which Agnosticism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Hindus :what [not-exists :what Gods]] Suppose the how to write application essay, cognitive system held the above beliefs about agnosticism. It would be wrong from our perspective. An Article For A Website? However, in my view, all mental models are approximations and may omit certain pertinent propositions, because they are models.
And we may get another’s viewpoint wrong. Write A Good Scholarship Application Essay? So the cognitive system winds up using its model of other viewpoints for reasoning, however accurate or inaccurate. My contention is write an article website, that all models are approximate, especially mathematical ones. That was my point. I’m coming at this from an implementation perspective. How can you use a model if you don’t form it first. Where do the models come from then? Moreover I’m coming at this from write a good essay College, a constructivist implementation perspective. Write An Article Pdf Xi’an University? My approach is to form models within an artificial cognitive system.
One has to form the write a good scholarship application College, model before it can be used for reasoning or decision making. It can be argued that even people form models, before they use them, and their models can be more or less accurate. @Owen Cotton-Barratt: I’m late to the party on this one, but there are some ensemble methods for regression in machine learning. Gradient boosted regression trees, regression forests, and AdaBoost are three such methods (AdaBoost is how to write good essays Buckland, typically used for classification but has been generalized to regression contexts also). AdaBoost seems the most analogous to model combination as humans do it, and in particular to the “many weak arguments” reasoning that has been written about in the past.
Ben: I think there are few if any examples of 100% “pure” sequence thinking; with that said, I see the Copenhagen Consensus as being about write scholarship essay as close as we generally see. Persuasive Seneca College? All of the how to write, analysis and reasoning they publish is focused around their cost-benefit ratio analysis, and generally speaking, a significant portion of the discussion is academic Buckland, devoted to discount rates, to how to write essay College, which the essay & Management, results are often highly sensitive. It’s true that at the end of the process, there is write essay, a panel that changes some of the conclusions, but the reasoning behind the changes does not seem to be disclosed, and the cost-effectiveness estimates seem to be at the center of the process. Holden, thanks for the response. Here are my comments on the formal model and how to Hermon worked example. I’ll separate them into different posts for how to scholarship Epsom legibility. This isn’t an error as such, but I think it would help to write an analytical essay IUBH School & Management, stress the scholarship application essay Epsom College, distinction between in-model chance and uncertainty about the model. It isn’t clear to me that it’s right to pull all of the good West, uncertainty about the model into F_i. I quite like keeping a distinction between uncertainty about model parameters (which you deal with via F_i or similar), and how to write a good scholarship essay College uncertainty about the possibility that the model is fundamentally incorrect. One reason to do this is that there is essays College, no clean line between what constitutes one or two models. * We might have two approaches for modelling a variable, A and B.
* Now we notice that there’s a slight variation of A, A’; we’re not sure if this is better. * Taking the a good scholarship application, geometric mean of A, A’, and B may give quite a different answer to write an article Northfield, taking the geometric mean of write scholarship application Epsom A and B, although really we’ve gained very little information. Note that A and A’ are giving far from independent information. IUBH School Of Business? One solution might be to have a credence in A which then gets divided (more or less) between A and A’. How To A Good Application Essay Epsom College? Better yet might be keeping track of independence. The model combination method of taking the write West Buckland School, geometric means has weak justification.
I agree that invariance under future Bayesian updates is an attractive property. This is accounting for the fact that the models may not be independent. However, it’s claimed “The geometric mean is the only way to do this while also treating all the a good scholarship application essay Epsom College, models symmetrically.” Is there a proof of this, or a reference? It seems like the method of learning assuming that exactly one of your models is correct will also work, so long as you update your credences over which is the correct model as well as updating your model. How To Write A Good Epsom? This seems perhaps more natural than the geometric means method (although assuming that exactly one is correct seems an error). I’m not saying that the geometric mean is to think, definitely wrong, but you haven’t convinced me that it’s ideal. Using the write scholarship, geometric mean method also gets you into problems with your other statements. You said: “Using non-Gaussian distributions and/or other combination methods would complicate the actual formula for calculating overall expected value, but in general would not change the qualitative picture: when combining two probability distributions, it is robustly true that a “fatter” distribution will cause less of an update from the distribution it is combined with, and that a sufficiently “fat” distribution (approximating constant probability density) will cause negligible such updating regardless of how to for a website Mount where its midpoint lies.” With the method of taking geometric means rather than multiplying together the probabilities, the final claim is write a good scholarship application essay College, false. How To For A Website Hermon? If you take the geometric mean with of a sensible distribution with one fat enough to be essentially flat over how to application Epsom College, the area in question, you’ll end up close to taking the square root of the probability density of Jiaotong-Liverpool University your original distribution (and renormalizing).
With a distribution with the right kind of write a good Epsom College tail, this could make it much more thick-tailed and shift the mean up considerably (indeed arbitrarily far). For example if the probability density falls off with an how to writing University Campus inverse square of the value, then its square root is an how to write application Epsom College improper distribution, so precisely how fat the fat distribution is carries a lot of weight. On the way your example uses medians and writing essay University Foundation Campus calls them expectations, you said: “On means vs. medians: Jacob and I were aware of how to a good essay this issue but neglected to address it explicitly in the writeup.” I’m afraid I can’t really see how this is defensible. It means that the write University, example is misleading people instead of clarifying. You might counter that it helps to demonstrate the point you think is how to scholarship application, important, but it really gives people an illusion that they understand what’s going on. It’s not the same as a simplifying assumption, because these are flagged so people realise that the assumption has gone in. Instead it’s been slipped in silently. You said: “We purposefully used distribution types that are extraordinarily fat-tailed, in order to how to University Amsterdam Foundation Campus, pre-empt claims that inappropriately thin tails are doing most of the work.
The result of this is that we used distributions with some strange properties. The means follow the same qualitative pattern as the essay Epsom, medians, but they are much higher, so much so that even the “pessimistic” models imply very high expected value. To get more intuitive means, we would have had to use much less intuitive parameters and/or use less fat-tailed distributions.” I think there were four reasonable approaches here: 1. Produce a toy example which uses thin-tailed distributions. 2. Produce an how to writing in english Campus example with thick-tailed distributions, and a good Epsom College explain why the mean values are higher than expected. (This is a key feature of heavy tailed distributions which deserves to how to write an analytical essay IUBH of Business, be more widely understood!) 3. Do both of the above – have a quick proof-of-concept example with the thin-tailed distributions, and an example to show the how to write essay, effects you get with thick-tailed distributions. 4. Post the example you did, with a disclaimer that the technical details are not correct because means/medians, but that you’ve simplified and don’t think this changes things substantially. Actually, do you have the how to write an article Jiaotong-Liverpool University, numbers that come out of using expectations in your worked example? I would have loved to see these. How To A Good? I haven’t put this into learning critically, any kind of stats package, but I think that the scholarship Epsom, geometric mean approach will mean that expectations are rather more sensitive to uncertain models than the medians, for write good the reasons I outlined in the comment above.
@Ben Kuhn: Thanks for the search terms! I suspected there was something more relevant out there. What we’re trying to do here isn’t quite a regression task (we generally don’t have training data that we believe; we’re using some other process for weighing the relative merits of different models), although it’s closer to that than to a classification problem. From some quick reading, it seems that the analogous procedure to how to application Epsom, Adaboost in our context would be to how to an article pdf Xi’an University, weight the various models according to how much we believe them, take a simple weighted average of the corresponding distributions F_i, and how to College then use the how to an analytical & Management, median value of this combination. Essay College? Does that sound right to you?
@Owen: What do you mean by saying “we generally don’t have training data that we believe?” How do we decide between models other than picking the one that most successfully accounts for what we’ve already seen (combined with some sort of inductive bias*)? @Ben: I suppose I mean that the inductive bias, or something like it, is doing a lot of work. We often build causal models, where we have data to support the different parts of the model, but not for the thing as a whole (because we’re trying to predict something that we’ve never been able to measure). What are some instances in which expert opinion is pdf Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, NOT an a good application Epsom input into how to School, cluster thinking? Here’s a reference for the geometric mean derivation: The formalization of the property claimed is scholarship application essay, “external Bayesianity”; my original claim, which Holden cites in his post, is learning critically School, true except in some very degenerate cases. The latter part of your comment is write a good application essay Epsom College, correct, though.
We initially were taking the learning Harrow, product rather than the geometric mean, and forgot to modify that paragraph to how to scholarship application essay Epsom, account for the change. Thanks for the further comments, all. Re: your first comment, it seems to me that the best solution is School, keeping track of how to write application essay independence; this could be formalized via the covariance between different models. My simplified model implicitly assumes independence, which isn’t right (and exaggerates the added robustness one gets from each additional model). Fair points about the geometric mean. How To Write An Analytical Essay School & Management? Your last comment notwithstanding, using the how to Epsom, geometric mean does seem to preserve most of the qualitative properties stressed in cluster thinking, but I agree that there are cases in learning to think critically Harrow School which it would not. Fair point about the write a good application essay Epsom College, lack of disclaimer; I’ve now added one. The medians/means are as follows … Model 1 22545/156373660163; model 2 1456/2463; model 3 512/2495; combination 961/5289; first alternative combination 6569/11674; second alternative combination 896/5310. Note also that the full code is available. almondguy : cluster thinking could rely on learning critically Harrow School, a number of historical patterns or general heuristics without incorporating expert opinion.
For example, I might believe team X is likely to win a baseball game because it wins more than half its games, its opponent loses more than half its games, its starting pitcher has a winning record, and how to application College it’s playing at home (and the home team wins more than half the essays Seneca, time); that’s 4 “outside views” without detailed conceptual models or expert opinion incorporated. @ Jacob: Thanks for how to write scholarship application the reply and the link. Re. the geometric mean derivation, it seems to me that a key assumption in that paper is that the pooling operator itself isn’t updated in Harrow light of new information. That makes some sense in a panel-of-experts context, but it’s not clear that it’s necessary in the model combination context. For instance the naive “Bayesian updating” of different models where you also update your credence in which one of them is correct — this seems to have the write application College, analogous property to ‘external Bayesianity’, but does it by write an analytical IUBH School of Business & Management altering the write scholarship essay, weighting that the different models get in the combination. @ Holden: thanks for those replies. I agree that covariance may well be the how to write an article, best way forward for dealing with model covariance (although I don’t think I know exactly how to do it). The means/medians in a good scholarship Epsom College the worked example are particularly interesting. It’s not clear that they support the same qualitative point as the median. When you made the first model wildly more optimistic and also wildly more uncertain, that lowered the median but over doubled the how to write an article Northfield Hermon, mean. Owen: the a good scholarship application, key qualitative point, in learning critically Harrow School my view, is write a good scholarship College, what one obtains after model combination in different cases.
When using either the write essays West Buckland, mean or the write a good scholarship application, median, a wildly more optimistic and to think critically Harrow School uncertain model has little effect on the result after combination, while a more robust model greatly increases the expected value. BTW, Jacob pointed out to me that using the geometric mean assumes a “high degree of dependence” between models; the independence assumption is only implicit when using the product method of combination. I really like this post. Some technical comments are below. (I wouldn’t be at application Epsom, all surprised if I’ve missed/misunderstood something/made a mistake somewhere, but for simplicity I’m dropping that caveat throughout. Also, let me know if you want me to write up the details.)
1. In the learning to think Harrow, technical supplement, you discuss the estimate where you weight your various models by the reciprocals of their variances. If your models m_i are uncorrelated (or in how to application Epsom practice sufficiently well approximated as uncorrelated) then that is the optimal linear weighting of your models in the sense of how to an analytical essay of Business & Management minimizing variance of the combined estimate. This conclusion requires no hypothesis on the distributions at all, other than finite second moments. In particular, it does not require a Gaussian assumption. 2. As you note in reply to Owen, you’re implicitly assuming independence or, more precisely, the weaker hypothesis that the how to a good College, distributions are uncorrelated.
In particular, it is not sufficient that the distributions are Gaussian. It would be good to make this explicit. Amsterdam Foundation? So e.g. the sentence “If all the Epsom, F_i = N(e_i,u_i)… the resulting probability distribution has expectation…” is false as written (i.e. it depends on that implicit assumption). 3. To generalize your formula to support correlated models, let V be the an article for a Northfield, [nxn] covariance matrix of the n models. How To A Good Scholarship Application Epsom? So your formula handles the case that V is diagonal.
Let e=(e_1,…,e_n) be the n-vector of expected values. Then the analogous formula is the interesting persuasive essays College, normalization of the how to write application, sum of the entries of the vector V^ e. If we write (W_ij) for how to write good Buckland School the entries of V^ , the expected value of the variance minimizing linear weighting of the models is given by how to write application College (sum_ W_ij e_j) / (sum_ W_ij). How To Buckland? The only Epsom College hypotheses required here are that V is non-singular and all second moments are finite. Comments are closed. Want to stay updated on GiveWell's research?
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Do Swap Resumes With Colleagues. Look at how they describe their duties and the company. Chances are, you’ll get some inspiration for your own descriptions. Plus, having some fresh eyes look at your resume is always beneficial. Ask a few friends what about your resume makes an impact and what is persuasive essays Seneca College, boring, confusing, or too vague. If the same things keep popping up, it’s probably time to edit.
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chinese essay topics FROM COUNTRY TO CITY. Social Changes of China in how to a good scholarship application Epsom, Photography. Translated by John Yu Zou. The Chinese Reform has been underway for learning critically more than a quarter of a century. This historical social transformation is one in which all of Chinese society is how to a good scholarship application College moving toward urbanization. Persuasive College! In the context of such a massive makeover, Chinese documentary photography provides a sustained focus on social changes and unprecedented new social experiences. With support from Bates College, I organized this exhibition of photographs with works by seven contemporary Chinese photographers to illuminate the path that China has traveled in the past twenty-five years. The exhibition is write a good scholarship College intended to illustrate changes in Chinese society to an American audience. The photographs by the painter Liu Xiaodi were taken in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
At the time, while he was an art student on fieldwork trips in China’s rural areas, he sketched and took photographs. How To Write Essays! As an art student, he was motivated to take the photographs as source material for his paintings. However, it is precisely because Liu did not receive formal schooling as a photographer that these images are free from some of the how to a good scholarship essay Epsom College, conventions of art photography. Instead of methodically orchestrating light and composition, he merely recorded what he saw through the camera, so that upon his return to the city, he could scrutinize the images again and rework them into his paintings. Without the photographer’s preoccupations, Liu’s work conveys a moment of writing Foundation Campus transparency and simplicity. Village (series), 1978-1979. I place Liu at the beginning of the exhibition because his images of Chinese rural life retain the traces of a society bound by the social structure and lifestyles of the Maoist era. Agricultural production among Chinese peasants, the conditions and substance of country living, and essay Epsom the states of the mind and mutual relations among people all receive representation in Liu’s works. The photographs that he originally took for his painting projects made him an West, accidental witness to a unique episode in Chinese history.
Master of the House (series) Zhao Weidong, 16, Jiyvan County, Compared with Liu Xiaodi’s non-conceptual approach, Jiang Jian projects a distinctive formal and conceptual awareness in write a good College, his portraits taken in Henan province during the how to an article Jiaotong-Liverpool, 1990s. His technique has an apparent and misleading straightforwardness. He positions peasant figures against images on the wall of the main room, the write a good scholarship, equivalent in Chinese rural architecture to the living room in an urban residence. Of Amsterdam —! In traditional Chinese living spaces, the central wall hanging in a good application College, the main room expresses the values of Chinese patriarchy and is usually a large-sized painting or work of calligraphy.
The memorial tablets on the offering table express the importance of the learning, lineage of the clan and the centrality of family ethics. Traditionally, the cultural signs found in these graphic and calligraphic images impose symbolic restraint upon the behavior of family members. How To Write Scholarship! The main room is also the center of family activities including memorial services to ancestors, family conferences, and the reception of how to an article University guests. The area serves family members and application Epsom College constitutes the key venue where they interact with visitors. How To Write School Of Business & Management! These photographs reveal that, in the context of how to application Epsom College contemporary Chinese social transformation, we find not only ancient traditions persist in the space of these main rooms, but political ideologies and various elements of popular culture have now entered the space and are competing against one another.
Numerous political messages, images of contemporary popular culture, and signs of traditional culture coexist within the writing essay of Amsterdam — Amsterdam Foundation, same space. Today, interiors revealing traditional ritual activities are becoming more rare in China, especially in the coastal cities. They are being replaced by décor evoking Western-style living rooms. The Master of the how to College, House series expresses the persistence of Chinese rural society and folk traditions in an increasingly urban China. How do we understand the concurrence of popular society, traditional culture, Confucian traditions, and political ideologies, and their mutual impact on contemporary China? To what extent may we achieve accuracy in Jiaotong-Liverpool, their description with the write scholarship essay College, help of different theories and methodologies? Many of us are facing these questions. The unique approach of the learning critically Harrow School, Master of the House series provides some heuristic leads. Jiang Jian invites his subjects to adopt standing or sitting positions in a living space that is still richly resonant with meaning, and then within that format he records every visual detail of their bodily presence and their surroundings. It is through such detail that he displays the conditions of life among Chinese peasants, and through bold folk coloring he highlights the cultural taste in write application essay College, rural central China. At the same time, Jiang is also able to render a scenario characterized by the coexistence of government ideologies, contemporary popular culture, and essays traditional culture.
Of course, what we may further learn from the photographs is that the process of urbanization is also one in which the values of urban living begin to be widely circulated and to take root in rural areas. Jiang Jian thus makes available to us a set of how to write a good essay Epsom visual documents to help understand the interesting, daily lives of Chinese peasants in a specific geographic region. Besiege the City by the Country (series) Through the 1990s, Zhang Xinmin, from how to scholarship application essay, Guangdong province, was engaged in a colossal visual project: Besiege the City by the Country: The Long March of Chinese Peasants to the City . This project consisted of three. parts: Village and write academic essays School Small Town Life , To the City , and The City . In a panoramic sweep, Zhang tried to capture the single most significant event in the contemporary transformation of Chinese society: peasants’ departure.
from their land and their integration into city life. Since the 1980s, because of radical changes in China’s social structure and how to write a good scholarship essay Epsom College economic policies, there has been a fevered acceleration in the process of urbanization. Massive numbers of surplus laborers from rural China flocked to the city in search of work. According to a survey conducted by the Rural Survey Team at University of Amsterdam — China’s Central Statistics Bureau, by write College, 2001 almost ninety million Chinese workers had moved from rural to urban regions. Besiege the City by the Country (series) However, for interesting essays Seneca College peasant workers, the prospects for how to a good scholarship essay Epsom College life and work in the city have not been good. Write Good Essays West! The challenges they face in the cities far surpass finding adequate food and shelter. Cities and their social structures have also not been prepared enough, in either material or psychological terms, to welcome peasant workers. Even though the cities and their traditional residents have grown dependent upon the services of peasant workers, the latter are often subject to ill treatment. Zhang’s photographs reveal the urban survival techniques of Chinese peasants and their gradual transition toward their new roles as city dwellers.
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Beginning in the early 1990s, the Shanghai photographer Lu Yuanmin spent ten years producing the series Shanghailanders . With his highly personal perspective, he brought forth images of Shanghai urbanites assaulted by profound economic change. At the center of Lu Yuanmin’s photographs is a cohort of Shanghai residents who maintained their habitual ways of living on the eve of radical upheavals in write application Epsom College, Chinese society. The subjects of the Shanghailanders series are those who remained unconcerned with changes in their external world. For a long time, this social group received almost no attention in Chinese media and how to an article pdf Xi’an University press. They were not the soldiers, workers, and peasants glorified in government propaganda, nor those “contemporary heroes” who responded positively to how to a good scholarship application Epsom the new economic policies from above and actively engaged in how to write for a, commerce when the write a good scholarship application Epsom, society moved toward a market economy. How To In English University Of Amsterdam — Foundation Campus! These were instead the people left behind by their own times. Like Zhang Xinmin’s peasant workers, these Shanghai urbanites were largely neglected by mass media. But unlike the peasant workers caught in Zhang’s gritty images, Shanghai’s residents asked for a good College neither the society’s attention nor its assistance.
They were a self-sufficient lot. At some level these Shanghailanders represent the majority of the population in the metropolis, urban residents who stayed largely outside public discourse. In terms of social background, Lu belongs to the same culture as his sitters. His photographs reveal a strong sense of identification with his subjects. In these images independent, self-possessed Shanghailanders receive the deepest of essay of Business sympathy from the artist, but the scholarship Epsom College, particulars of their living environments also become subjects of exquisite description. In this series, the Shanghailanders appear willing to lose themselves in essays Seneca, times that have passed. From their reserved and somewhat defiant manners, we may appreciate the complicated psychological reaction of a particular group to radical social transformation. The stillness of their gestures and positions contrasts dramatically with the violent and unpredictable social mobility within Chinese society at the time. Through Lu’s lenses, they serve as a static point of reference to observe and essay Epsom College consider drastic social changes. Shangai Sketch (series), 2002.
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The aggressive architectural surfaces in the images stand in contrast to the clusters of skyscrapers in the coastal cities, and are evidence that urbanization in how to application essay College, the Chinese interior follows a different pattern from the coast. New Residences of Luoyang (series) Such works by Luo provide a meaningful point of departure for an understanding of the relationship between architecture and urban life and development in interior Chinese cities, as well as the limited aesthetic resources of Chinese city dwellers in these areas. After Luo began working in Shanghai, his collage-style, grid-partitioned works singularly expressed the modern city’s endless expansiveness and self-duplication. In the recent publication, Research Report on how to write essay of Business & Management Contemporary Chinese Class (Lu Xueyi editor, Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, Beijing, 2002), Chinese sociologists redefined the social classes in China. According to a good scholarship application essay Epsom this model, Chinese society now may be divided into ten classes.
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While the images in the Heaviness of how to essay University Amsterdam Foundation Industry series strive to show the workers’ labor and subsistence in physical terms, they also expose the drift of the working class as a whole from the center of write a good essay Epsom Chinese society to its peripheries. The Heaviness of interesting persuasive essays Industry series catalogs a number of raw moments in workers’ operational routines from a rich variety of a good scholarship Epsom perspectives. Zhou’s images do not aestheticize the laborers’ physical hardship, nor do they present sensational characterizations of persuasive Seneca College human tragedy. Neither singing praise to modernization nor reflecting upon essay Epsom, the negative consequences of the process may be as important as providing a site for an extensive social appreciation of the material experiences of “industry,” of the persons who are engaged in industrial production, of the relationship between the human body and work, of the value of work to the entire society. Heaviness of Industry (series) Because of the special conditions of social development and historical coincidences, modernization in China is following a unique trajectory. Well before its infrastructural base undergoes systematic industrial modernization, the country faces a transition toward a digital society. The conflicting objectives and realities between the pursuit of industrialization and the drive toward post-industrial environments result in much awkwardness in actual social experience.
The industrial workers in Zhou’s pictures embody such awkwardness in the most direct terms. These works do not excessively elaborate upon the experience itself. Rather, they introduce us to the complicated psychological states — a mixture of pride, perseverance, loss, and helplessness — with which the workers react toward the complexities of the historical moment. To Think Harrow! By weaving together subliminal settings and how to write application essay Epsom College intimate depictions, Zhou takes his subjects away from the Maoist myths handed down from the past and returns them to their actual condition and how to an article for a Hermon salvation. From the documentary works by these Chinese photographers, we may conclude that there is how to a good scholarship application Epsom a parallel between the growth of Chinese documentary photography and changes in Chinese society.
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